During an Oct. 21 meeting with U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, Vladimir Putin raised the prospect of a “restoration of bilateral relations, including in the sphere of economic cooperation.” After discussing supplies of Russian diesel and problems facing American farmers, Putin added: “We could also supply fertilizer, and in large quantities, to the American market.”
Washington, however, placed fertilizer on a list of goods exempt from sanctions as early as March 2022.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at U.S. financial services company StoneX, told The Insider that Russian fertilizer shipments to the United States never stopped even after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and in the case of nitrogen fertilizers, deliveries actually increased substantially:
“Since 2022, Russia’s share of U.S. urea imports has jumped from 21.5% to 40.7%, rising from 1.07 million metric tons to 2.2 million metric tons. Over the same period, Russia’s share of UAN [urea-ammonium nitrate] imports increased from 42% (1.12 million metric tons), to 57.2% (1.37 million metric tons).”
According to data Linville provided to The Insider, Russia’s share of U.S. potash fertilizer imports declined over the same period, though it was relatively small to begin with. Russia accounted for 10.35% of all U.S. potash imports in FY 2021, or 1.48 million metric tons. By FY 2026, its share had fallen to 7.12%, or 980,000 metric tons.
Linville said Putin’s statement appeared to be politically motivated.
“Assuming there are no major changes in global fertilizer markets, it is possible that Russian flows could increase. Russia is the world’s largest urea exporter, with 8.2 million tons exported in 2025.
However, they have had little issue in finding homes for those tons. Even without the U.S., they have plenty of friendly destinations to sell to. Recent flow volumes are ‘market right’ and any increase would likely take outside forces.
For UAN, Russia only exported 1.8 million tons in 2025, which means the U.S. represented 69% of their overall export destinations. [Russia’s] UAN production and export has fallen in recent years due to a lack of destinations.
Australia, Canada, and large parts of Europe have all blocked trade with Russia. That means the U.S. is one of the last major destinations remaining for Russia. If they could send more here, they would have already been doing so, but they have slowed in favor of urea.
I think it’s just politics, plain and simple. The market is already bringing Russian tons in a way that is seen as ‘market normal.’ Any increase would take a heavier hand from on high in order to improve government relations.”
