News
In this week’s summary:
- After over two years of fighting, Russian forces have captured Vuhledar — the Russian Naval Infantry alone lost 2,100 men in the battle for the city.
- Battles are continuing along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal from Chasiv Yar to Klishchiivka and Andriivka, south of Bakhmut.
- In Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv region, Russian forces are continuing to mount suicidal assaults on the aggregate plant in Vovchansk.
- After two months of operations in the Kursk Region, Russian troops have only managed to retake between 8% and 21% of lost territory
- In the “drone war,” Ukrainian soldiers are using net guns to disable enemy UAVs.
- The independent investigative publication Important Stories (IStories) reports that Russia plans to recruit up to 40% of the country’s criminal defendants for the war under a new law promising them immunity if they join the army.
- The Economist estimates total Russian losses at 100,000 killed and 430,000 wounded.
- At least 93 Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered to the Russians have been executed, with 80% of these cases occurring in 2024
Situation at the front
This week’s key development at the front was the Russian capture of Vuhledar. The battle for the town lasted over two years, with Russia’s 155th and 40th Marine Brigades losing close to 2,100 men — killed, severely wounded, or missing. That figure represents up to 40% of both units’ pre-war strength. In recent weeks, Russian forces advanced on the flanks, threatening supply lines and entering the city from three directions.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) soon announced their withdrawal from Vuhledar, motivated by an effort “to save personnel.” However, according to the accounts of several Ukrainian soldiers shared with the BBC Russian Service, the retreat was disorganized and saw heavy losses, with many of the wounded left behind at the mercy of Russian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), meanwhile, reported that only 44 Ukrainian soldiers were captured. A separate report also claimed that the commander of one of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense battalions shot himself after his unit abandoned its positions near Vuhledar. Nonetheless, resistance continues north of the city — notable footage shows a duel between Ukrainian and Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), with the latter being captured as a trophy by the Ukrainians.
The situation remains tense in the Pokrovsk direction and on the northern flank of the Vuhledar bulge. Russian troops are trying to flank Kurakhove and Selydove, securing positions in the tree lines south of the latter and capturing Marynivka to the northeast. They are also destroying civilian infrastructure in the city of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian fortifications in the Hirnyk area are described as being incomplete and lacking protection against Russian UAV threats.
In the Bakhmut direction, however, Ukraine is carrying out counterattacks. Thanks to its reserves and the large-scale use of drones, Ukrainian forces have managed to push Russian troops back to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, east of the village of Stupochky near Chasiv Yar. At the same time, Russian forces are reportedly advancing again and trying to secure positions closer to the canal in the Andriivka and Klishchiivka areas, south of Bakhmut. In the Siversk bulge, the Russian MoD announced the capture of Verkhniokamianske — this came as puzzling news to “surprised” Russian fighters in the area, presumably because they could see for themselves that the battle was far from over. Nevertheless, Russia’s Defense Minister Andrey Belousov sent a congratulatory telegram to the 6th Motor Rifle Brigade for “liberating” the settlement.
The Russian MoD also claims to have captured Nelepivka in the Toretsk direction. Meanwhile, in Toretsk itself, almost no intact buildings remain due to the effects of constant shelling. According to the Ukrainian open source intelligence project DeepState, Russian forces are advancing and securing positions in the city. Russia’s MoD also reported the capture of Makiivka in the Luhansk Region. DeepState confirmed that Russian forces have captured Nevske in the Lyman direction and made gains near Kruhlyakivka in the Kupiansk direction.
Russian forces have also become more active in the north of Ukraine’s Kharkiv Region, launching suicidal assaults in attempts to recapture the aggregate plant in Vovchansk, which was cleared by Ukrainian special forces last week. Several Russian MT-LB vehicles (1, 2) “packed” with infantry were destroyed in these assaults. Meanwhile, Russian forces reportedly recaptured the village of Starytsia near Vovchansk — a settlement they had previously taken during the early stages of the Kharkiv offensive but which Ukrainian forces later reclaimed.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported (1, 2) that Russian forces have regained control over Obukhovka, located on the western side of the AFU’s bridgehead in the Kursk Region. Meanwhile, a Russian assault on Plekhovo, on the eastern side of the bridgehead, was thwarted by Russia's own fortifications (trenches and concrete obstacles) now manned by Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance north of Malaya Loknya and near Veseloe in the Glushkovsky District in Kursk. Overall, in two months of fighting in the region, Russian forces have managed to recapture only 8% to 21% of the territory lost during the early stages of Ukraine’s surprise incursion.
New developments continue to surface in the ongoing drone war. The AFU are mastering the use of net guns to disable enemy UAVs by tangling their propellers and have devised a new tactic to counter vehicles equipped with electronic warfare (EW) systems. By using FPV drones with fragmentation warheads to damage the wheels or engine, Ukrainian forces can immobilize the vehicle; some time later, when the EW system powers down, a second drone is used to finish off the vehicle.
According to a report by the independent Russian investigative publication Important Stories (IStories) citing sources in Russia’s MoD, plans are underway to send up to 40% of the country’s criminal defendants to the front lines. Vladimir Putin recently signed a new law granting immunity from court proceedings to those who join the Russian army. This law closed an important gap, as previously only those either still under investigation or already convicted of crimes could enlist in exchange for immunity.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
Throughout the week, Ukraine’s Air Force Command (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) reported the launch of 359 Iranian-designed Shahed drones over Ukraine (of which 278 were shot down, 54 were “radar lost” due to electronic warfare, five flew into Russia, and two flew into Belarus, with one exploding mid-air near Kalinkavichy in the country’s southeast). Seven missiles of various types were also launched, three of which were intercepted.
Port infrastructure in the Izmail District of Ukraine’s Odesa Region was damaged after Russian night raids (two truck drivers were injured, including one Turkish national). Russia also targeted Ukrainian energy facilities, leading to emergency power outages in the Sumy and Poltava regions. Russian forces also struck the Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro, a train carrying ammunition in the Mykolaiv Region, and a locomotive in the Sumy Region.
Civilian infrastructure was also affected, including a hospital in Sumy (eight people killed, 22 wounded), a market in central Kherson (six people killed, 12 injured), and a five-story residential building in the Saltivka neighborhood of Kharkiv (12 injured). Russian forces also continued striking Zaporizhzhia with with glide bombs (16 people were injured on Sept. 29, and 21 on Oct. 1).
Meanwhile, Russia’s MoD reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the destruction and interception of 277 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Russian territory. Of these, 125 were launched on the night of Sept. 29 (no significant targets were hit), and 113 on the night of Oct. 3 (the drones struck the Borisoglebsk military airfield but caused no significant damage). The next day, an oil depot near the village of Anna in the Voronezh Region was hit — local authorities confirmed that the strike resulted in an empty oil tank catching fire.
The AFU, for its part, reported destroying a Russian S-400 system’s radar in the Belgorod Region and a pontoon crossing in the Luhansk Region (the extent of the damage in the latter case is unclear). In occupied Horlivka, four emergency service workers were injured in a drone attack while responding to a previous strike, and in Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Belgorod Region, seven local residents were wounded in a drone attack.
Overall, in September, according to the independent Russian publication Agentstvo. Novosti, the two sides launched a record number of drones at one another’s rear areas: 886 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russia, while 1,331 Shahed drones were launched at Ukraine. September marked the first instance of non-stop mutual air raids throughout the entire month — not a single day of interruption was documented. According to calculations made by volunteers at the independent OSINT organization Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), at least 253 civilians were killed and another 1,718 injured in both Russia and Ukraine (including in the occupied territories) due to strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Losses
The BBC Russian Service and the independent Russian media outlet Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, updated their count of Russian losses based on open-source reports. The number of confirmed deaths stands at 72,004, more than half of whom had no connection to the Russian military prior to Feb. 2022 — the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, a lengthy overview of the war in Ukraine from The Economist reported a new estimate of Russian losses, citing an unnamed U.S. official: 100,000 soldiers killed and 430,000 wounded.
Ukrainian Telegram channels published drone footage showing the execution of 16 Ukrainian POWs in the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office confirmed that at least 93 Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered had been executed, with 80% of these cases occurring in 2024.
Weapons and military vehicles
Romania has fulfilled its earlier commitment by delivering a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine — a move confirmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Romania’s Ministry of Defense.
Zelensky also discussed the state of Ukraine’s defense industry at the DFNC2 international forum in Kyiv. The following highlights were noted:
- In the first half of 2024, Ukraine produced 25 times more artillery and mortar rounds than it had in the entirety of 2022.
- Ukraine’s drone production capacity has reached four million units per year.
- Ukraine is now producing 15–20 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers each month (conference attendees were shown a prototype of the towed variant of the Bohdana for the first time).
On Sept. 29, Denmark committed close to €560 million to support Ukraine’s defense industry, with over a third of the funds sourced from frozen Russian assets. Connecticut-based Kaman Aerospace Corp. was awarded a contract to service 500 HAWK missiles for future transfer to Ukraine.
Belgium has announced its intentions to deliver three Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, while France is launching production of 12 Caesar systems using Ukrainian financing. Ukraine has received a third of 155mm artillery rounds promised through the Czech Initiative, with talks underway to further expand the program.