Weekly Ukraine war summary: Urban fighting in Vuhledar, Russian forces rush to the Oskil River, AFU recaptures aggregate plant in Vovchansk

In this week's summary:

• Russian forces are restoring bridges over the Seym River in Russia’s Kursk Region; the Russian counteroffensive has halted.
• Fighting has begun in Vuhledar’s residential areas, meaning that the Ukrainian garrison will most likely have to withdraw from the city.
• Russian troops have resumed their offensive towards Myrnohrad in the Pokrovsk sector.
• Massive mechanized assaults have brought the Russian Armed Forces closer to the Oskil River south of Kupiansk.
• Units of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) have recaptured and cleared the territory of the aggregate plant in Vovchansk in the north of Kharkiv Region.
• Russian aerial bombs with unified gliding and correction modules have started regularly hitting the city of Zaporizhzhia.
• BBC Russian Service and the Russian independent publication Mediazona have confirmed the names of 71,057 war dead from the Russian side.
• The U.S. administration has announced a $8 billion package of military aid to Ukraine.

Situation at the front:

The Russian counteroffensive in Kursk Region, which began two weeks ago, has come to a complete halt — at least on the western flank of the Ukrainian bridgehead. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has even expanded control in the northern part of the bridgehead near Kamyshovka. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are rebuilding bridges over the Seym River in the north of Glushkovsky District — albeit with mixed success. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets writes that if the Russian command is to push the Ukrainian force back to the border, it will need to reorganize the assembled grouping and pull up additional reserves.

The situation is much worse for the AFU in the vicinity of Vuhledar, where Russian troops persist in their attempts to take the city using a pincer maneuver. On the left flank, the Russian Armed Forces crossed the Kashlahach River, advanced northward, and established fire control over the main supply route to Vuhledar. Russian forces also entered a residential area in the eastern part of the city. Ukrainian sources (1, 2) agree that the moment to remedy the situation has passed, while the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) believes that the AFU should begin an organized withdrawal from the city.

In the Pokrovsk sector, the Russian Armed Forces have resumed their offensive towards Myrnohrad, breaching the last significant line of AFU defenses before the city itself. On the southern flank of the sector, Russian forces entered Tsukuryne, south of Selydove, and began attacks on Selydove from the south — so far without success.

At the junction of the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, Russian troops partially occupied the village of Nevske via a mechanized assault and installed a Russian flag there; to the north, they advanced in the vicinity of Pishchane to the Oskil River. However, their offensive on Kolisnykivka and Kruhliakivka was blunted, with heavy losses of armored vehicles. To the south, in the area of Chasiv Yar, the AFU withdrew near Andriivka in the direction of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal.

The highlight of Ukrainian activities amidst the ongoing Russian offensive is the Ukraininian military intelligence (HUR) operation to retake the aggregate plant in Vovchansk, where Russian troops had long been operationally encircled. Russian pro-war sources recognized the loss of the plant premises (1, 2) and used the occasion to raise the matter of logistics challenges at the front: due to the overwhelming presence of Ukrainian drones, cargo has to be delivered on foot by “kamikaze” fighters.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

During the week, the AFU Air Force Command reported repulsing the following missile and drone attacks:

• On the night of Sep. 21, the Ukrainian air defense intercepted five out of five Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles and 11 of 16 Shahed-type drones. Five more UAVs were “radar-lost,” likely due to the effects of electronic warfare systems. Four Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missile launches were also detected as targeting Dnipropetrovsk Region. In Kryvyi Rih, three people were killed and three more injured in a strike.
• On the night of Sep. 22, the air defense intercepted 71 out of 84 Shaheds, and six more UAVs were radar-lost. Two Kh-59/Kh-69 air-launched cruise missiles were also launched.
• On the night of Sep. 23, three out of six Shaheds were intercepted, while another UAV and two guided missiles fell short of their targets due to the use of electronic warfare systems.
• On the night of Sep. 24, air defense forces shot down 66 out of 81 Shaheds, while another 13 were radar-lost. The Air Force also detected the launch of four missiles — an Iskander-M ballistic missile, two Kh-59/Kh-69 air-launched cruise missiles, and a missile of unknown type.
• On the night of Sep. 25, air defense forces shot down 28 out of 32 Shaheds and intercepted all four Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles. In addition, a surface-to-air missile (SAM) from an S-300 SAM system and three unidentified missiles were reported to have been launched at the Kharkiv Region.
• On the night of Sep. 26, 66 of 78 Shaheds were shot down, with another eight radar-lost. Air defense forces also intercepted both missiles of unspecified type launched at Sumy Region and all four Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles launched at the Odesa Region from the Black Sea area. In Odesa Region, a woman was killed in the attack; in Ivano-Frankivsk, an infrastructure facility was hit; in Kyiv, falling debris depressurized a gas pipe in a residential building.
• On the night of Sep. 27, Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 Shaheds out of 32 launched; one more was radar-lost. The launches of an Iskander-M ballistic missile and two Kh-22 supersonic cruise missiles were also reported. In Odesa Region, the port of Izmail on the Danube was hit, with the attack killing three people and injuring 16 more.

This week, Russian guided bombs began to reach Zaporizhzhia on a regular basis. Local authorities have reported civilian deaths and injuries (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), while Russian sources have published footage of strikes on the workshops of the Motor Sich factory (1, 2), claiming the destruction of facilities related to the production and storage of UAVs.

In Kharkiv, an aerial bomb collapsed six floors of a high-rise building on Sep. 24, killing three people and injuring 23. The next day, five people were injured by shelling in Russia's Belgorod.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces damaged a crossing and a bridge in Kharkiv Region and launched precision strikes with Lancet loitering munitions against Ukraine’s Dunai radar station and the “Yaroslavets” boat. Civilian deaths and injuries were reported in the Dnipropetrovsk (1, 2), Kharkiv (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Donetsk (1, 2, 3), and Sumy regions, among others. Nikopol, in Dnipropetrovsk region, was hit with aerial heat traps launched from an FPV (first-person view) drone as incendiary munitions.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, in turn, reported on the repulsion of the following raids:

• On the night of Sep. 21, 101 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were “destroyed and intercepted” over Russian territory. Ammunition depots in Tver Region and Krasnodar Krai came under attack.
• On the night of Sep. 22, 15 UAVs were destroyed. One of the strikes presumably hit a facility at the Kapustin Yar missile range in the Astrakhan Region.
• On the night of Sep. 23, Russian air defense intercepted 8 UAVs. A rocket fuel plant in the Rostov region was hit, with the attack damaging one of its gas supply pipes.
• On the night of Sep. 24, 12 UAVs were destroyed.
• On the night of Sep. 25, two UAVs.
• On the night of Sep. 26, seven UAVs.
• On the night of Sep. 27, nine UAVs.

Overall, according to the cited data, this past week Russia attacked Ukraine with a total of 329 Shahed UAVs and 26 missiles, while 154 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were destroyed during night raids over the territory of Russia (the Russian Ministry of Defense does not disclose the total number of detected enemy drones).

Losses

The Russian independent publication Mediazona jointly with BBC Russian Service and a team of volunteers have established the names of 71,057 combatants killed on the Russian side in its war with Ukraine. Among Russia’s regions, Bashkortostan now ranks first in terms of overall war losses, replacing Krasnodar Krai. It is noted that many obituaries also come from Tatarstan.

According to a Financial Times report citing commanders of AFU units, 50-70% of Ukrainian infantry recruits are killed or wounded before their first rotation. According to the commanders, the freshly mobilized lack basic combat skills and motivation and often abandon their positions after being fired upon. In addition, 55,000 Ukrainians (mostly military personnel) have been reported missing, and more than 100,000 Ukrainian servicemen have gone AWOL since the beginning of 2022.

Weapons and military vehicles

During Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the United States, the American government announced multiple substantial military aid packages. The first, allocated under the Presidential Drawdown Authority for Military Assistance (PDA), features JSOW glide bombs compatible with F-16 multirole fighters. The next day, President Joe Biden announced $5.5 billion in military aid under the PDA program. As The Insider columnist Colby Badhwar previously explained, if the allocation had not been made in time, the funds would have simply “expired” at the end of the fiscal year on Oct. 1. In addition, a $2.4 billion arms order was announced under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) — it included SAMs, sea drones, air-to-ground munitions, UAVs, and drone and munitions production equipment. President Biden also promised to expand the training program for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and confirmed the previously announced delivery of another battery of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.

This week, the German Bundestag agreed to allocate an additional €400 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2024, and the UK increased the number of AS90 self-propelled howitzers planned for delivery from 12 to 16 (10 of which have already been delivered). It also became known that, in addition to the F-16s and French Mirage fighters, which were promised earlier, Ukraine is negotiating the delivery of Swedish JAS 39 Gripen and European Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft.