Dodik is back! How the “Balkan Trump” is destabilizing Bosnia and Herzegovina

Milorad Dodik, leader of the main Bosnian Serb party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), has visited Moscow for the second time this month. After attending the May 9 Victory Day Parade on Red Square, Dodik received an invitation to the International Security Forum, where delegations from 120 countries are discussing “security issues, the protection of traditional values, and resistance to neocolonialism and neo-Nazism.” Among the guests are national security advisers to heads of state, leaders of law enforcement agencies and intelligence services, ambassadors, and representatives of international organizations and academic institutions.

Dodik hardly fits any of these categories. Instead, he retains the status of the Kremlin’s main ally in the Balkans, primarily thanks to his unconditional support for all Kremlin initiatives. Although Dodik has no foreign policy authority (and does not even currently hold any formal government position), he is still frequently received at the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry.

This time, he arrived for a meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko carrying a declaration adopted by the parliament of Republika Srpska (the Serb entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) calling on the UN Security Council to abolish the post of High Representative in Bosnia, the international administrator who serves as the ultimate authority on interpreting the Dayton Accords of 1995.

The Balkans are now debating the unexpected resignation of the current High Representative: German diplomat Christian Schmidt, who announced his departure on May 11 after five years in office. Although Schmidt cited “personal reasons” for his departure, many believe he was pushed out by the Trump administration, which was dissatisfied with the German diplomat’s style and his sharp conflict with Dodik. The State Department has not formally confirmed this, but it described Schmidt’s resignation as a timely decision and promised to work actively on de-escalation.

It was Schmidt’s disputes with Dodik — along with the position of Russia and China, which never recognized his appointment — that has led to the most severe crisis since the end of the Bosnian War. In June 2025, Dodik was removed from the post of president of Republika Srpska for failing to comply with the High Representative’s decisions. A court even sentenced him to one year in prison (a penalty that was quickly converted into a fine) and barred him from holding public office for another six years.

However, the court could not strip Dodik of his political influence. In November 2025, he secured the election of his ally Siniša Karan as president of Republika Srpska and also succeeded in getting U.S. financial sanctions lifted from himself, his children, and his inner circle. Experts describe Dodik as the main beneficiary of the conflict with the international administration, as it is now much easier for him to demand an end to external oversight by exploiting the contradictions among the main guarantors of peace: the United States, Europe, and Russia.

As Vuk Vuksanović, an international security expert and lecturer in war studies at King’s College London, told The Insider, opinions on the institution of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina have always been divided. The authorities in Sarajevo and most Western countries viewed the institution as necessary for implementing the Dayton Accords and maintaining stability in the country. On the other hand, many Bosnian Serbs, some Croatian politicians, a number of Western analysts, and officials in Moscow argue that the institution of the High Representative has given international officials excessive influence at the expense of democratically elected local leaders.

“The reality is, of course, more complex than either of these positions, but politically the biggest winner in the current situation is Dodik, whose main goal is to preserve his political influence and remain in power, whether formally or informally,” Vuksanović says.

Interestingly, the United States and Russia have ended up in similar positions, albeit for different reasons. Russia has spent years criticizing the institution of the High Representative (and Schmidt in particular), while the Trump administration’s policy has shown a tendency toward more pragmatic and “transactional” relations with local political elites.

“In a sense, Dodik achieved what Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić had hoped for but failed to obtain: the ability to maintain relations with both Washington and Moscow while simultaneously weakening European influence,” Vuksanović explains.

Observers continue to debate how dramatically Washington’s Balkan policy could change under Trump — and whether this might ultimately undermine the entire settlement model in which the United States originally acted as the main financial donor and security guarantor. The Trump administration has stated that “the United States remains steadfast in its commitment to support stability and security in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans. We work closely with Bosnia and Herzegovina’s leaders to reinforce Dayton and encourage the pursuit of local solutions that benefit all constituent peoples.” Decisive U.S. diplomacy, according to a recent report to Congress, helped end the most severe crisis since the 1992–1995 conflict “while preserving the country’s legal cohesion and constitutional order.”

But the details of last year’s agreements between Washington and Dodik remain unknown. One of the main questions is why all sanctions against him were lifted after years of accusations of corruption, obstructing the peace settlement, and attempts to dismantle Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The United States first imposed sanctions on Dodik in 2017 and later expanded the measures several times, extending them to cover executives of companies linked to the Dodik family, Dodik’s political associates, and to his son Igor and daughter Gorica. In the American documents, Dodik was portrayed almost as a demonic figure who had robbed the public and nearly destroyed the country.

For example, in June 2024 the U.S. Treasury Department stated that it would “continue to expose the fraudulent schemes that allow Dodik and his family to exploit their own people for personal gain.” According to the document, Dodik was not only robbing citizens through corrupt practices, but also undermining national security via his near constant threats of Republika Srpska’s secession.

The Treasury Department explained that Dodik had used his official position to steer government contracts to private companies controlled by him and his son Igor through nominal owners and directors. Among those companies are Prointer, Kaldera, Infinity Media, K-2, Una, and Sirius, which receive lucrative government contracts in the information technology and engineering sectors.

As late as November 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department was claiming to have “exposed” clear attempts by Dodik’s network to circumvent the restrictions imposed on him. Nevertheless, on Oct. 29, 2025, sanctions affecting nearly 70 people and entities were lifted — yet Dodik’s team continued to harshly criticize the international administration and its opponents in Sarajevo exploiting the contentious issues of financial and state property disputes to reiterate Republika Srpska’s main ambition: breaking away.

“Dodik has always found unexpected courses of action to survive on the political stage, and even when it seemed that he was fading into the past, he would rise again against all political logic,” Husnija Kamberović, a professor at the Faculty of Philosophy at the University of Sarajevo, told The Insider.

According to Kamberović, Schmidt’s resignation is pushing Dodik toward even more active measures. Although he was removed from the post of president of Republika Srpska last summer, he remains the central political figure in Republika Srpska’s power structure. In effect, he has retained full power while shifting responsibility for its exercise onto others. Dodik will push new declarations of his own and try to encourage others into the risky venture of annulling previous decisions by the High Representative, Kamberović believes.

Over the entire postwar period, the Office of the High Representative has adopted hundreds of decisions on a wide range of issues that local authorities were unable to resolve themselves. These included matters related to property, the return of refugees, the state symbols of Bosnia and Herzegovina, citizenship laws, and election legislation. In addition, around 140 officials — judges, government ministers, civil servants, and members of parliament — were dismissed. Among the most recent measures were the suspension of budget financing for Dodik’s party (SNSD) and the annulment of several resolutions passed by the parliament of Republika Srpska.

In recent months, delegations from the Bosnian Serb leadership have been making frequent trips to the United States, while Republican members of Congress and other notable allies of Donald Trump have begun visiting Banja Luka. Perhaps most notably, on May 27–28 Michael Flynn’s think tank, the Gold Institute for International Strategy, hosted an international forum on economic and security issues in Banja Luka.

Politicians and “opinion leaders” from Europe, the United States, and allied countries were invited to the event. Particular attention, organizers said, was devoted to the role of Republika Srpska within Bosnia and Herzegovina “as Europe faces shifting alliances, renewed great-power competition, and evolving institutional frameworks.”

Flynn is known for serving as Trump’s National Security Advisor for only 24 days — the shortest tenure in the history of the position. He left office in February 2017 following a scandal over his undisclosed contacts with  Sergey Kislyak, then the Russian Ambassador to Washington.

Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI in the case concerning alleged Russian interference in the U.S. elections, although he later attempted to withdraw the guilty plea. In 2020, Trump exercised his constitutional authority and granted Flynn a pardon.

In the Balkans, Flynn is described as one of Republika Srpska’s main lobbyists, reportedly earning $100,000 a month for providing “strategic advice and analysis and helping establish contacts with decision-makers in Washington.”

Flynn, who has been labeled a “Christian nationalist,” also visited Banja Luka in March, and his lecture there was broadcast live by the pro-government RTRS television channel. Among other things, he accused the European Union of “arrogance” and indirectly supported the idea of Republika Srpska’s independence.

Responding to a question from Dodik about the threat of the Islamization of Europe and European state institutions, Flynn said that “Islam is not a religion, but a political philosophy.” Many interpreted this as a jab at Bosnian Muslims, who make up half of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s population.

At the beginning of April, Dodik and his son Igor — the organizational secretary of the SNSD party — warmly welcomed Donald Trump Jr. to Banja Luka. Although he holds no government office, Igor is considered one of his father’s key advisers.

Donald Jr., for his part, serves as executive vice president of The Trump Organization while simultaneously acting as a “mouthpiece” for the MAGA movement. He also participates in election campaigns and helps shape the president’s team by promoting conservative figures and ideas. The media has discussed the possibility of his participation in future presidential elections.

In Republika Srpska, he was received with special honors fitting of a future head of state. Central Banja Luka was completely sealed off, armored vehicles were deployed, and large numbers of local police officers were mobilized. Igor Dodik said Trump Jr. had arrived in Banja Luka at his invitation, calling it the result of years of work with people who support “common-sense politics.” Dodik Sr. was among the key figures accompanying the American president’s son.

Three weeks later, the Bosnian Serb leader was honored at Judson University, a private Baptist educational institution in Illinois. There, Dodik received the institution’s “Leadership and Defense of Democracy” award in recognition of his commitment to national sovereignty, democratic principles, and courage in the face of complex political and global challenges.

Answering journalists’ questions, Dodik criticized previous U.S. administrations for mistakes in implementing the Dayton Accords and described Bosnia as an unstable country lacking sovereignty. He even compared himself to Trump, claiming that he, too, had suffered from politically motivated prosecution. Dodik named Russia, the United States, and China as his main partners.

In the near future, the main participants in the Balkan settlement process will have to agree on a candidate to replace Schmidt as High Representative, but it is expected that the next officeholder will not enjoy the same freedom of action that previous High Representatives did. For three decades, Washington was one of the principal supporters of an interventionist approach in the region, and with a green light from the United States, international administrators freely removed unwanted officials from office while imposing whatever laws they deemed necessary.

However, at a UN Security Council meeting on May 12, U.S. representative Tammy Bruce said that the future High Representative should have a “significantly more limited mandate.” Britain and France expressed support for the Office of the High Representative, while Russia once again called for its closure.

As Husnija Kamberović told The Insider, it is now quite difficult to find political forces, either in Bosnia and Herzegovina or internationally, capable of helping resolve the crisis. “One would have hoped that over the past 30 years the international community had done more to stabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina’s domestic institutions. But we can see that these institutions, undermined by corruption, have proved insufficiently accountable, while political leaders have been unable to cope with the challenges facing the country.” In his view, “a compromise must be found — otherwise there is a real threat of a new conflict, possibly even bloodier than the one in the 1990s.”

Many observers in the Balkans fear that today’s disputes among global powers could turn into a serious security problem, especially if the separatist bloc led by Dodik chooses the path of escalation. Still, King’s College international security expert Vuksanović believes that “talk of Bosnia and Herzegovina breaking apart would be an exaggeration.”

“Even Dodik understands that such a scenario would be extremely risky and difficult to achieve. Moreover, despite changes in U.S. policy, neither the Trump administration nor even Russia wants such an outcome,” he told The Insider.