De-Hezbollahization: The progress and prospects of Israel’s operation in Lebanon

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What’s Happening in Lebanon

In the early hours of October 1, 2024, Israel launched the ground phase of its “Northern Arrows” operation in southern Lebanon, just north of the border with Israel. This stage followed extensive airstrikes, high-profile sabotage actions (such as the well-known remote detonation of pagers), and the targeted eliminations of Hezbollah leaders, including the group's head, Hassan Nasrallah. During the ground campaign, Israeli forces conducted a daring naval special forces raid in the city of Batroun, located 140 kilometers from the border and over 50 kilometers north of Beirut, aiming to capture a high-ranking Hezbollah member.

According to official reports, even before the ground maneuver began, Israeli forces carried out “dozens of targeted raids” in the border regions (around 70 within 2–3 kilometers of the border), destroying numerous tunnels — many from the air — and neutralizing hundreds of targets.

The main combat operations are taking place in the so-called Galilee salient in Lebanese territory. The IDF is dismantling Hezbollah observation posts, ammunition depots, weapon caches, tactical tunnels, strongholds, and individual rocket launchers.

A paramedic from an Israeli paratrooper brigade told The Insider that in villages abandoned by civilians and Hezbollah fighters, they frequently find not only prepared firing positions, but also residential homes outfitted with weapons, along with basements that have been used for ammunition storage and which contain passageways leading to a network of tunnels. Some of the captured weapons and equipment are reportedly of Russian origin.

The IDF’s ground phase involves fighters from four divisions: the 36th, 91st, 98th, and 146th. In just over a month since the start of maneuvers in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces have occupied only around 30 square kilometers of Lebanese territory, with the operation remaining primarily raid-focused.

Meanwhile, strikes continue on Dahiya, a Shia suburb of Beirut, and also against targets deeper within Lebanese territory, where the IDF aims to destroy major long-range missile depots, command posts, weapons and ammunition production sites, and convoys at border crossings. Through these strikes, Israel seeks to impose a partial blockade, disrupting Hezbollah’s logistics and limiting its receipt of external supplies. The airstrikes have also targeted Hezbollah’s reserves of cash dollars and gold, as well as buildings belonging to Al-Qard al-Hassan (a financial organization that offers social support to Lebanese on behalf of the movement and is reportedly used for money laundering and illicit business) and the Al-Manar TV channel.

Israeli estimates indicate that 2,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed during the ground operations in southern Lebanon, bringing the group’s total KIA since the start of the war to around 3,000. Israel has dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities, leaving the group with less than 20% of its original stock of rockets and artillery ammunition and only 30% of its pre-war drones.

The IDF has also suffered losses. Since the ground operations began, approximately 40 Israeli soldiers have been killed, with around 900 wounded.

As in Gaza, the fighting has led to widespread destruction, triggering a humanitarian crisis. Satellite images reveal that 25% of all buildings in Lebanon’s border areas have been destroyed. Estimates suggest that between 800,000 and 1.2 million people have become refugees, several thousand have died, and more than 10,000 have been injured.

Who is involved in the new Lebanese war

The IDF’s ground operation in southern Lebanon, referred to as the Third Lebanon War (following Israel’s 1982 invasion and the 2006 war with Hezbollah), is unfolding in a highly complex operational environment. In addition to Hezbollah fighters, the area hosts units and groups from Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and other Palestinian and pro-Iranian factions. Also present are UN peacekeeping forces under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and, of course, the official Lebanese army. Notably, some of Hezbollah’s exposed positions and underground infrastructure have been found just meters away from UN peacekeeper observation posts.

Prior to the ground phase of the operation, Israel carried out a series of decapitation strikes targeting Hezbollah’s senior and mid-level commanders, severely weakening the group’s capacity for organized resistance. By some estimates, around 50,000 IDF soldiers are now stationed either in Lebanon or along Israel’s northern border. Given the volume of captured Hezbollah weaponry — including tens of thousands of anti-tank missiles taken as trophies — Israeli forces likely expected resistance from comparably sized units. However, on the battlefield, Hezbollah’s forces have so far only appeared in smaller groups, typically at the platoon level.

What are Israel's objectives

The official goal is the “dismantling” of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in order to prevent an attack similar to the one Hamas launched on October 7, 2023 — only this time targeting the Galilee. Additionally, Israel aims to facilitate the return of approximately 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated due to ongoing shelling.

However, in a televised address to the Lebanese people on October 8, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlined more ambitious objectives, including the “liberation” of Lebanon from Hezbollah’s influence and that of its main sponsor, Iran. This goes beyond the removal of all foreign forces and Hezbollah fighters from the border area up to the Litani River, as stipulated in UN resolutions.

Should Israel restrict its operation to eliminating Hezbollah’s border infrastructure, this phase of the ground operation would be expected to take around two months. However, based on the declared evacuation zones in southern Lebanon, it appears that Israel may be planning to “clear” a much larger area.

What are the chances of victory for each side and what does “victory” mean?

So far, the IDF has managed to establish a buffer zone up to 10 km deep along some segments of the border, clearing about 3 km of adjacent areas of Hezbollah positions. However, rumors are circulating in the press about a potential ceasefire in the near future. Until now, Hezbollah has consistently rejected any negotiations that do not come with a corresponding agreement on the Gaza Strip, but Jerusalem has not yet agreed to these terms. Meanwhile, despite efforts from international mediators, the IDF is expanding its operations to include Baalbek and Nabatiya, located deep inside Lebanese territory.

The ground raids are accompanied by airstrikes not only within Lebanon but also in Syria, as Shia fighters from Lebanon have been involved in combat operations on the side of Bashar al-Assad's regime since 2012. So far, the airstrikes have been focused on a relatively small area. Meanwhile, the retaliatory rocket attacks on Israeli territory by the group have been far less intense than expected. This could indicate that Israel is successfully destroying missile launch points, or that there is significant disorganization within Hezbollah's command chains following the IDF’s decapitation strikes.

To truly weaken Hezbollah, it will be necessary to entirely destroy the group’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon — not just along the border strip. Over the years, Hezbollah had created many of the necessary preconditions for a scenario similar to what Hamas executed on October 7, 2023. Now, IDF forces are systematically destroying warehouses, firing positions, and offensive tunnels.

The operation in Lebanon is just one of several fronts in Israel's wider conflict with multiple adversaries. Alongside Hamas and other factions in the Gaza Strip, Israel is also facing the Houthis in Yemen, non-state actors in Syria and Iraq, various factions on the West Bank, and Iran itself. The “Northern Shield” operation represents a shift in focus to the Lebanese front, but Israel may soon need to redirect its forces in a different direction, such as towards Iran.

Retired Brigadier General Eran Ortal of the IDF emphasized in a conversation with The Insider that, from a military theory perspective, the goal is not simply to push Hezbollah back from the border, but to dismantle it as an organized force. “If that is not done, the war will end eventually with a truce, followed by an arms-race, followed by a future war, when this job will have to be done,” he explained.

“Israel was not sufficiently prepared for this war — the success of the early strikes could not be assumed in advance — and is less ready after a year-long war,” noted the general. The forces and resources Israel has deployed are sufficient for clearing southern Lebanon, but more ambitious goals will require additional army units, Ortal believes.

“Another option is for the current divisions to continue moving north from their current deployment. That will be tactically more dangerous and slow,” Ortal adds.

According to Ortal, a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon by Israeli forces would be the “worst-case scenario,” though the course of the war and its potential political implications could lead to this outcome.

Yagil Henkin, a military historian, lecturer at the IDF Command and Staff College, and research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), agrees that a long-term solution to the security threats emanating from Lebanon requires, in one way or another, the elimination of Hezbollah:

“You need to take Hezbollah out of the equation in some way, if you want to get a political solution in Lebanon. There might be somebody to work out a solution with, but nobody will dare say anything if Hezbollah is still there. Basically, right now, Israel is trying to take out an immediate threat to northern villages. Hezbollah positions are placed in such a way to enable a surprise attack against Israel.”

Some Lebanese politicians view Israel's military campaign as a chance to remove Hezbollah's influence from Lebanon — and by extension, Iran's. Such a development would offer the chance to change Lebanon's status as a failed state. After so many significant strikes against its top leaders, Hezbollah has largely lost its agency, and its current head is now in Iran rather than in Lebanon.

So far, the IDF has successfully carried out its primary defensive objective: neutralizing Hezbollah's ability to launch an attack on the Galilee. However, the threat remains active and operational.