De-escalation through conflict: The foggy future of Israel's unifying Lebanon campaign

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On Sept. 17, thousands of pagers belonging to commanders and rank-and-file members of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah exploded simultaneously. The next day, radios and other devices detonated. Around 40 people were killed, and roughly 2,800 were injured, some seriously. A number of the wounded will remain disabled for life. The explosives were embedded in specific models of communication devices used by Hezbollah members.

On Sept. 20, the Israeli Air Force struck the southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiya, where Hezbollah’s military leadership was meeting in an underground headquarters. The strike killed the group’s operations commander, Ibrahim Aqil, senior leader Ahmed Wahbi, and dozens of other commanders and fighters. According to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, the militants had been discussing an invasion plan for Galilee — an attack on Israel similar to the October 7 massacre carried out by Hamas last year — involving the seizure of Israeli towns and villages near the border, along with killing and kidnapping residents.

Israel did not claim responsibility for the pager and radio explosions, but according to ABC News, which cited sources in U.S. intelligence, Mossad had been planning the operation for at least fifteen years. However, in the case of the Dahiya attack, Israel’s leadership and military command openly acknowledged their role. At the same time, they issued what could be final appeals to Hezbollah to reach an agreement and avoid further escalation.

A third Lebanon war?

On Sept. 23, Israel officially launched its Northern Arrows aerial military operation against Hezbollah. The IDF press service addressed the residents of southern Lebanon in Arabic, urging them to leave their homes if they were storing weapons or ammunition in or near their properties. Following this announcement, Israeli aircraft began a large-scale bombardment of Hezbollah targets, some of which were located in residential areas.

Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari presented footage of one of Israel’s recent strikes in Lebanon. The video shows what is said to be a Hezbollah DR-3 cruise missile stored inside a residential building in a Shiite village and captures the moment when an opening is made in the building’s wall, purportedly in preparation to launch the missile. According to Hagari, the Israeli Air Force managed to carry out a preemptive strike shortly before the launch.

Hagari stated that many homes in southern Lebanon hide similar weapons caches. A comparable situation was observed in Gaza, where militants concealed weapons and rockets in residential buildings connected underground by a series of tunnels. As a result, Israeli airstrikes in the fall of 2023 caused significant destruction in such parts of Gaza. It appears southern Lebanon may be facing a similar fate.

On Sept. 23, Lebanon reported its most intense day of fighting since the 2006 war with Israel. From early morning, the Israeli Air Force launched a series of strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, and these attacks continued intermittently throughout the day. The IDF press service reported that approximately 1,300 targets in southern Lebanon were hit in a span of 24 hours.

According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, as of the morning of Sept. 25, 569 Lebanese people had been killed, and at least 1,835 others were injured. The ministry did not specify how many of the casualties were combatants and how many were civilians. Lebanon’s Health Minister Ras al-Abid stated that among the dead were 50 children and 94 women. The Israeli side, for its part, emphasized that women and children were most often killed not by direct Israeli strikes, but by secondary detonations of rockets and munitions that militants had hidden in residential homes.

The end of patience

Lebanon had grown accustomed to a relatively restrained Israeli response to militant attacks and did not immediately grasp that Israel's patience had run out. As fighting in the Gaza Strip subsided, the IDF was able to redeploy some forces to the north, including the 98th Airborne Division, which had been actively engaged against Hamas militants in Gaza. The Israeli leadership had delayed launching a full-scale war in the north, as it sought to avoid fighting on two fronts simultaneously.

Aug. 2024 marked the most tense period on the Lebanese-Israeli border since the start of the war on Oct. 8 of last year. Lebanese militants fired 1,307 rockets at Israeli targets (an average of 42 per day). This statistical data was released in early September by Doron Kadosh, a military correspondent for the IDF’s radio station, Galei Tzahal.

From the beginning of the war last fall until the end of August, Lebanese militants launched over 6,600 rockets at Israel. Judging by the scale of the attacks, September has likely set a new record for the number of rockets and drones fired by Hezbollah.

The first sign that Israel's patience was wearing thin came on Jul. 30, when an airstrike in Beirut killed one of Hezbollah's founders and its de facto chief military commander, Fuad Shukr. The Israeli attack came in response to the shelling of the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 Israeli children and teenagers.

On the morning of Aug. 25, the IDF announced a preemptive strike on Lebanese territory and the destruction of “thousands of Hezbollah’s rocket launchers,” which had been intended for use targeting northern and central Israel. That same morning, Hezbollah launched around 210 rockets and 20 drones into Israeli territory, calling it revenge for Shukr’s killing and the “first phase” of a new operation.

“De-escalation through escalation”

On Sept. 17, amid ongoing shelling by Hezbollah, Israel added the return of evacuated residents from northern Israel to its official list of war objectives. Their homecoming will only be possible if Hezbollah militants are not in close proximity to the border. Israel was prepared to use diplomacy to push the militants back beyond the Litani River in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was adopted in 2006 following the Second Lebanon War. However, negotiations with Hezbollah and Lebanese officials with the help of international mediators have been ongoing for several months with no results to show for the efforts.

In recent days, the notion of “de-escalation through escalation” has gained traction in Israel. This concept puts forward the idea that applying military pressure on the group while efforts for a diplomatic resolution continue could encourage Hezbollah agree to a settlement instead of escalating the conflict further.

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, who has extensive connections in the country’s political circles, wrote about this concept in Axios. Proponents of the idea believe that under significant pressure, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah could be compelled to back down, which would allow for the return of over 67,000 residents to northern Israel and hundreds of thousands to southern Lebanon.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israelis that difficult days lie ahead, urging them to be patient:

“We are facing challenging days. I promised that we would change the balance of power in the north, and that is what we are doing. For those who still do not understand, I want to clarify Israel's policy. We do not wait for a threat; we anticipate it. Anywhere, in any arena, at any time.”

Meanwhile, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that Israel aims to keep the campaign as short as possible: “That’s why we are attacking with such intensity. At the same time, we must be prepared for the possibility that we may need more time.”

Diplomatic stalemate

International mediators, primarily the United States and France, have been negotiating with Hezbollah for almost a year — ever since the group announced its support for the Hamas invasion of Israel last Oct. 7 and launched attacks against the country using rockets and drones. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared at that time that the group would continue its attacks until the war in Gaza came to an end, a promise he has reiterated multiple times since.

This week, the U.S., France, and several allies called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border and also supported a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

American negotiators have been actively trying to broker a deal for the return of hostages and a cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, hoping this would also help resolve the conflict with Hezbollah. However, the likelihood of such a deal is slim: Hamas leaders will not accept any agreement with Israel that undermines their power or influence in Gaza, while Israel cannot make such concessions without risking a significant rift within its society and government.

When it comes to the Lebanese front, all diplomatic efforts are thwarted by the starkly opposing interests of Israel and Hezbollah. Any concession from one side would signify a victory for the other, meaning neither side is willing to compromise. Moreover, one of Hezbollah's stated objectives is Israel’s destruction, which the opposing side, understandably, cannot accept. Additionally, there are 13 disputed areas along the Israel-Lebanon border, an unresolved issue that is also used by Hezbollah to justify its actions.

The aforementioned UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants from the border regions of southern Lebanon. Only the Lebanese army and international observers were to remain in the area. However, Hezbollah had no intention of complying with the resolution, while Israel chose to overlook these violations. Consequently, the situation that existed before the 2006 war re-emerged, with Shiite militants establishing themselves close to the Israeli border — building military infrastructure and turning residential areas into fortresses in preparation for future conflict with Israel.

What’s next?

One reason the Israeli leadership hesitated to actively counter Hezbollah is its experience from past conflicts in Southern Lebanon. In 1982, in an effort to push militants away from its border, Israel deployed troops to Lebanon but was unable to withdraw from the occupied territories for eighteen years due to fears that such a move would undermine all its military gains. A new ground operation could turn into a similar quagmire, leading the Israeli army to become bogged down and suffer regular losses for an extended period.

Hezbollah likely expects Israel to deploy troops into Lebanon and to become ensnared in a prolonged conflict. The group has been preparing for this scenario for years, meticulously laying traps for Israeli forces ever since the 2006 war ended. Lebanon's landscape is now peppered with warehouses and caches of Hezbollah rockets and weapons, and the southern regions pose an even greater threat, with homes and roadways rigged with hidden explosives. Visibly, Hezbollah has a strategy for a sustained and arduous guerrilla warfare campaign.

At the same time, the escalation and prolongation of the war would serve Benjamin Netanyahu's political interests, allowing him to showcase his leadership abilities while boosting the ratings of his Likud party. Polls indicate that the party is gradually recovering from the downturn it experienced after the tragic events of October 7. This does not imply that Israelis have forgotten or forgiven Netanyahu for those events, but that he has managed to divert their attention — at least for the time being.

Moreover, continuing the conflict provides a legitimate excuse to postpone the formation of a commission tasked with investigating the failures of the Israeli government agencies that permitted Hamas’s October 7 attack. If the commission operates independently, it is highly probable that the current Prime Minister will be implicated among those responsible.

Israeli airstrikes also offer Hassan Nasrallah a chance to reconsider and negotiate an agreement that would enable him to preserve Hezbollah’s forces and resources. However, this window of opportunity is closing quickly. Typically, any Israeli ground operation is preceded by a week of preparing the battlefield, during which air and artillery strikes eliminate various threats. This may be precisely what is occurring now. On Sept. 25, reports indicated that the IDF had been mobilizing two reserve brigades for “operational tasks” on the northern front.