This should be the last time: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris meet on the debate stage

RU

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris had never met in person when the sitting Vice President strode across a debate stage to shake the former President’s hand. What followed was nearly two hours of perfectly predictable back-and-forth loosely structured around a collection of topics — from the economy and abortion to illegal immigration and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

On the day of the debate, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model gave Harris a 56% chance of prevailing at the polls in November.

Despite the stark difference between the style and substance of the candidates on stage Tuesday night, that model is likely to remain right up to Election Day. Kamala Harris acquitted herself perfectly well. After appearing agitated at some of Trump’s early outbursts, she seemed to calm down, often laughing as the third-time Republican candidate wandered off on yet another unsubstantiated rhetorical tangent.

Cat-astrophe

Understandably, much of the media attention following the debate focused on Trump’s assertion that illegal immigrants in Ohio were “eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”

Trump’s unsubstantiated version of events appears to have been based on an August incident in which an American-born woman in Canton, Ohio did in fact kill and eat a cat while broadcasting the act of animal cruelty on Facebook Live. Memes claiming that Haitian immigrants were involved in similar events had been spreading in right-wing circles even before Tuesday night’s debate.

Political analyst David Axelrod, who managed the campaign that brought Barack Obama to the White House in 2008, called Trump’s performance a “cat-astrophe” while noting that Kamala Harris “was as well-prepared as any candidate I have ever watched.” CNN reported that its debate watch focus group had become more favorable towards Harris after seeing her performance — rising from 39%to 45% — while Trump's favorability among the same group fell from 41% to 39%.

Minutes after the debate ended, Taylor Swift came out with her endorsement of Harris.

And yet, after yet another wildly inaccurate night for America’s 45th President, his approval ratings are likely to remain just within range of the results he will need if he is to become its 47th head of state. Tuesday night was not the first time Trump has made outrageous statements. He narrowly won the 2016 election despite using similar rhetoric, and he narrowly lost in 2020 despite racking up literally thousands of falsehoods during his four years in the Oval Office. As Trump’s former Chief of Staff Reince Preibus told ABC News after the debate, no matter what he says, “Donald Trump’s numbers just don’t move.”

A collection of what Trump and Harris actually said on a variety of topics outlines the choice before the American electorate this November.

The economy

Judging the performance of the U.S. economy during Trump’s time in the White House is complicated due to the coronavirus pandemic. From 2017-2019, GDP growth was within the 2.5%-3.0% range before lockdowns led to a 2.2% drop in 2020. Biden’s stewardship is similarly difficult to assess, as high inflation rates (6.5%-7%) in the first two years after businesses reopened came back down to the 2.9%-3.4% range over the past two years.

Harris: I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people, and that is why I imagine and have, actually, a plan to build what I call an opportunity economy. Because here’s the thing: we know that we have a shortage of homes and housing, and the cost of housing is too expensive for far too many people. We know that young families need support to raise their children. And I intend on extending a tax cut for those families of $6,000, which is the largest child tax credit that we have given in a long time, so that those young families can afford to buy a crib, buy a car seat, buy clothes for their children. My passion, one of them, is small businesses… I love our small businesses. My plan is to give a $50,000 tax deduction to start-up small businesses, knowing they are part of the backbone of America’s economy. My opponent, on the other hand, his plan is to do what he has done before, which is to provide a tax cut for billionaires and big corporations, which will result in $5 trillion to America’s deficit. My opponent has a plan that I call the Trump sales tax, which would be a 20% tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get through the month. Economists have said that Trump’s sales tax would actually result, for middle-class families, in about $4,000 more a year.

Trump: First of all, I have no sales tax. That’s an incorrect statement. She knows that. We’re doing tariffs on other countries. Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world. And the tariff will be substantial in some cases. I took in billions and billions of dollars, as you know, from China… I had tariffs, and yet I had no inflation. Look, we’ve had a terrible economy because inflation has — which is really known as a country buster. It breaks up countries. We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation’s history. We were at 21%, but that’s being generous, because many things are 50, 60, 70, and 80% higher than they were just a few years ago. This has been a disaster for people, for the middle class, but for every class. On top of that, we have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums. And they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African Americans and Hispanics, and also unions… I created one of the greatest economies in the history of our country. I’ll do it again and even better.

Abortion

On June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned the 1972 case of Roe v. Wade. As a result, the federal constitutional right to an abortion (with certain restrictions) no longer held sway, and states were permitted to formulate their own policies.

Harris: Donald Trump hand-selected three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would undo the protections of Roe vs. Wade. And they did exactly as he intended. And now in over 20 states there are Trump abortion bans which make it criminal for a doctor or nurse to provide health care. In one state it provides prison for life. Trump abortion bans that make no exception even for rape and incest. Which, understand what that means: a survivor of a crime, a violation to their body, does not have the right to make a decision about what happens to their body next. That is immoral. And one does not have to abandon their faith or deeply held beliefs to agree that the government, and Donald Trump certainly, should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.

Trump: [A Democratic governor] said the baby will be born, and we will decide what to do with the baby. In other words, we’ll execute the baby… Because they’re radical. The Democrats are radical in that. And her vice presidential pick…says abortion in the ninth month is absolutely fine. He also says execution after birth, it’s execution, no longer abortion, because the baby is born, is okay. And that’s not okay with me. Hence the vote. But what I did is something for 52 years they’ve been trying to get Roe V. Wade into the states. And through the genius and heart and strength of six Supreme Court justices, we were able to do that. Now, I believe in the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. I believe strongly in it. Ronald Reagan did also. 85% of Republicans do. Exceptions. Very important. But we were able to get it. And now states are voting on it.

Illegal immigration

Estimates put the number of immigrants residing in the U.S. illegally at 11 million in 2022. The all-time high came in 2007, at 12.2 million.

Harris: I’m the only person on this stage who has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations for the trafficking of guns, drugs, and human beings. And let me say that the United States Congress, including some of the most conservative members of the United States Senate, came up with a border security bill which I supported. And that bill would have put 1,500 more border agents on the border to help those folks who are working there right now over time trying to do their job. It would have allowed us to stem the flow of fentanyl coming into the United States. I know there are so many families watching tonight who have been personally affected by the surge of fentanyl in our country. That bill would have put more resources to allow us to prosecute transnational criminal organizations for trafficking in guns, drugs and human beings. But you know what happened to that bill? Donald Trump got on the phone, called up some folks in Congress, and said kill the bill. And you know why? Because he preferred to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. And understand, this comes at a time where the people of our country actually need a leader who engages in solutions, who actually addresses the problems at hand. But what we have in the former president is someone who would prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.

Trump: Our country is being lost. We’re a failing nation. And it happened three and a half years ago… What they have done to our country by allowing these millions and millions of people to come into our country… A lot of towns don’t want to talk about it because they’re so embarrassed by it. In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country. And it’s a shame… They allowed people to come in, drug dealers, to come into our country, and they’re now in the United States. And told by their countries like Venezuela don’t ever come back or we’re going to kill you. Do you know that crime in Venezuela and crime in countries all over the world is way down? You know why? Because they’ve taken their criminals off the street and they’ve given them to [Kamala Harris] to put into our country. And this will be one of the greatest mistakes in history for them to allow — and I think they probably did it because they think they’re going to get votes. But it’s not worth it. Because they’re destroying the fabric of our country by what they’ve done. There’s never been anything done like this at all. They’ve destroyed the fabric of our country. Millions of people let in. And all over the world crime is down. All over the world except here. Crime here is up and through the roof. Despite their fraudulent statements that they made. Crime in this country is through the roof. And we have a new form of crime. It’s called migrant crime. And it’s happening at levels that nobody thought possible.

Russia’s war in Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched an unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has provided Kyiv with approximately $83 billion in military and economic assistance, while Europe has delivered $122 billion.

Harris: It is very well known that Donald Trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy. It is well known that he admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one according to himself. It is well known that he said of Putin that he can do whatever the hell he wants and go into Ukraine. It is well known that he said, when Russia went into Ukraine, [that] it was brilliant… Through the work that I and others did we brought 50 countries together to support Ukraine in its righteous defense. And because of our support, because of the air defense, the ammunition, the artillery, the Javelins, the Abrams tanks that we have provided, Ukraine stands as an independent and free country. If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now.

Trump: If I were president it would have never started. If I were president Russia would have never, ever -- I know Putin very well. He would have never…gone into Ukraine and killed millions of people, when you add it up. Far worse than people understand, what's going on over there…Putin endorsed [Harris] last week. Said I hope she wins. And I think he meant it. Because what he's gotten away with is absolutely incredible… I want the war to stop. I want to save lives that are being uselessly — people being killed by the millions. It's the millions. It's so much worse than the numbers that you're getting, which are fake numbers. Look, we're in for $250 billion or more because they don't ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are… I want to get the war settled. I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well. I have a good relationship… They respect me. They don't respect Biden… That is a war that's dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become President. If I win, when I'm President-Elect, and what I'll do is I'll speak to one, I'll speak to the other, I'll get them together. That war would have never happened… And now you have millions of people dead, and it's only getting worse, and it could lead to World War III.