Prisoners' dilemma: Negotiations with Hamas on hostages and ceasefire split Israel, raise talk of early elections

RU

The Biden administration is keen on an early ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to prevent the conflict from spreading throughout the region. This threat is real, given the rising tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. The U.S. and other international actors are seeking solutions to the conflict and contemplating what will happen «the day after the war.»

Most countries view the ideal resolution as the final settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the creation of a Palestinian state. While this is not currently on Israel's agenda, a ceasefire with Hamas is possible but challenging. The main reason Israel might negotiate is the Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip.

Israel's willingness to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza stems primarily from the need to address the hostage situation, even though they have not succeeded in eliminating Hamas. The critical questions revolve around the terms of an exchange deal and the subsequent steps to be taken.

Division inside Israel

In Israel, opinions on the Gaza Strip situation vary widely, not just between the government and the opposition, but also between the military and political leadership — even within the ruling coalition.

The coalition is divided on two main issues. The first is the possibility of a deal with Hamas. Religious Zionist party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Otzma Yehudit party head Itamar Ben-Gvir both oppose the outlines of the current deal being discussed. This week, Smotrich hardened his position even further, announcing that he would leave the government if a deal is concluded in which Israel agrees to release terrorists.

But a deal would not require Knesset approval. A vote by the government, in which Netanyahu would have majority support, suffices.

The military is particularly dissatisfied with the government attempting to shift responsibility for the failure of October 7 onto them. Differences in war strategy surfaced in an interview with Daniel Hagari, the Israel Defense Forces' official representative, to Israel’s Channel 13 in mid-June. «Hamas is an idea. It is rooted in people's hearts. Anyone who thinks we can completely destroy Hamas is mistaken,» Hagari said.

Hagari believes that to genuinely weaken Hamas, an alternative must be established in the Gaza Strip. «If we don't bring something else to Gaza, we will eventually get Hamas again,» he emphasized. In contrast, Netanyahu's statements about the «day after the war» have been vague, attracting criticism from both the Israeli opposition and the U.S. Hagari also highlighted the challenge of returning all Israeli hostages held in Gaza through military operations alone, stating, «We must achieve a scenario where hostages will be returned by other means.» The opposition, ranging from members of parliament to street protesters, interpreted Hagari's remarks as an indication that the army supports a deal to end the war.

The second major disagreement is over a new conscription law, particularly its potential conscription for yeshiva students, most of whom are currently exempt. The recent war revealed a shortage of personnel in the army. Since October 7 many reservists have been called up multiple times, leading to widespread demands for «equality of burden» and the abolition of exemptions, a position supported by left-wing parties.

A Knesset bill proposes drafting over 2,000 ultra-Orthodox youths in the first year and gradually increasing the number until it reaches 10,000 annually, with a target date of 2036. There is no consensus within the coalition. Netanyahu and the ultra-right oppose conscripting the Orthodox, while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, though supportive, did not back the bill, preferring no specific recruitment targets.

While the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee discusses the bill, a High Court of Justice ruling to conscript yeshiva students and freeze funding for non-compliant institutions has come into effect.

But despite growing tensions, it is unlikely the ultra-Orthodox parties will break up Netanyahu’s ruling coalition anytime soon. The Knesset's vacation, starting from July 28, will provide the prime minister a reprieve — passing a dissolution law before lawmakers return to work is nearly impossible.

Public Sentiment

Even before October 7, Israel was teetering on the brink of political civil war due to the government's attempt to limit the powers of the country’s High Court of Justice, a move the opposition viewed as an attempted coup. Hundreds of thousands of people protested against the reform, blocking major highways weekly. At the peak of the unrest, the All-Israel Trade Union Association («Histadrut») announced a strike.

The protests took a pause after October 7 but resumed in November with new slogans. The primary demand is for the government to secure the return of the hostages held in Gaza. Gradually, these demonstrations have become weekly events and are increasingly taking the form of anti-government protests.

Popular protest slogans include, «You're the head — you're guilty!» and «Bring them home!» alongside «Elections now!» and «Deal now!» Protesters claim Netanyahu is sabotaging a deal that could free the hostages because ending the war would lead to elections — and potentially cost him power.

Street pressure on the government intensifies whenever ceasefire negotiations resurface, as seen in recent days. However, the situation is complex, and the support for these protests is not as widespread as it was during the judicial reform struggle.

In early July, protest organizers declared another «Day of Resistance,» calling for a million people to take to the streets to support a ceasefire deal amid renewed negotiations. However, the turnout was disappointing, and demonstrators were unable to paralyze Israel or block major highways the way they had during the judicial reform protests. This decrease in participation was noted by Haaretz, the leading left-wing Israeli newspaper and primary voice of the protests.

There was also noticeable discontent towards the protesters. While the vast majority of Israelis hope for the return of the hostages, many are unhappy when this issue is mixed in with political demands for the immediate resignation of the government and the holding of elections in the midst of war. Not everyone is willing to support a deal at any cost, and the hardline positions of right-wing leaders Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have substantial public backing.

Even among the families of the hostages, there is no unity. Some align with the protest movement, while others support continuing the military operation and oppose pressuring the government, believing such politicking benefits Hamas. Relatives of fallen soldiers are also divided. Protests by opponents of a deal have already begun, but these are not as active or as large as those advocating for an agreement. However, this situation could change.

Opinion polls present a contradictory picture. According to a survey published on July 7 by Channel 13, known for its alignment with protest discourse, 58% of respondents support a deal to release the hostages and end the war, while 23% are against it. Additionally, 54% believe Netanyahu is motivated by political survival rather than concern for the state and the abducted, while 31% disagree. Furthermore, 44% think Israel is losing more than winning in the war, whereas 33% believe Israel is in a winning position.

Conversely, a poll published on July 8 by Channel 14, which supports Netanyahu, indicates that 53% of the Israeli population opposes the deal in its current form, while 36% support it.

The day after the war

Under these conditions, early elections seem inevitable. Everyone understands that the government and the ruling coalition will not last until October 2026, the scheduled date for the next Knesset elections. The only question is timing.

The opposition is actively preparing for the elections. The left-wing parties Labor and Meretz have united under the leadership of reserve Major General and former Chief of the General Staff Yair Golan. Other left-wing forces may join them, but it remains unclear with which party participants in the street protest movement will align. It is uncertain whether its leaders will decide to unite with established politicians.

One striking example of the complexity of the situation is Golan's absence from the largest anti-war event after October 7. The peace conference, held in early July in Tel Aviv, gathered approximately 6,000 people — activists from various left-wing movements and public organizations, artists, politicians, relatives of hostages and fallen soldiers, and representatives of Israel's Arab community, including those with relatives in the Gaza Strip. However, only four current Knesset deputies attended, highlighting the significant distance between the «peace camp» and the corridors of power.

«From a pragmatic point of view, any major Israeli mobilization for peace must inevitably take into account security needs. This is a discussion we must continue to develop on the left,» writes left-wing activist and journalist Hagai Matar. «However, no one at the conference offered solutions for dealing with the long-term problems of Hamas and Hezbollah or the growing illegitimacy of the Palestinian Authority among Palestinians — issues that are very real and relevant for many Israelis.»

Matar emphasizes that the Israeli left believes these threats will vanish once the occupation ends and a peace agreement is reached. However, this stance does not alleviate the deep-seated fear among most Israelis that the events of October 7 could happen again.

In fact, the topic of potential peace negotiations with the Palestinians — even with the official Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, not with Hamas — is nearly taboo. A significant number of Israelis believe there is no viable partner for dialogue.

Public opinion polls reveal the popularity of Hamas among Palestinians: despite everything, the majority prefer that the movement continue to govern the Gaza Strip and support the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority. Against this backdrop, many Israelis who support a ceasefire deal involving the return of hostages are not ready to discuss a permanent peace with the Palestinians at this time, even if they believe it is important to hold the Netanyahu government accountable.

In early July, 61 Knesset deputies from both the coalition and the opposition proposed a resolution for parliamentary approval that Israel reject the idea of creating a Palestinian state under any conditions, due to the risk of Hamas supporters coming to power. The issue is set to be put to a vote before the parliamentary recess. If passed, it could displease mediators, including the U.S., as it would limit flexibility in negotiations. However, for now, the focus remains on «step by step» efforts to achieve a ceasefire.

Hamas' position adds further uncertainty. The head of Hamas' political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, warned mediators that the situation in Gaza could set back negotiations. Following Israel's attempt to eliminate Hamas military leader Muhammad Deif, the state of play became even more ambiguous. Two senior Hamas representatives reported the movement had withdrawn from negotiations, but a member of Hamas' political bureau later stated that media reports to this effect were unfounded. There have been no reports from the Israeli side about terminating the negotiations.