The level of shock over Trump’s behavior following the start of negotiations with Russia is rapidly increasing. His accusation that Ukraine started the war speaks volumes. From the very first days of his return to the White House, it became clear that uncontrolled chaos is, for now, the only strategy the new American administration is offering — to adversaries and allies alike. Even the contradictory attempts to organize talks on Ukraine look chaotic. The bewilderment and anxiety sweeping over the global community demonstrates just how few actors on the world stage are capable of comprehending Trump’s approach — no one had time to prepare, and now, resignation is setting in. The U.S. is dismantling the very frameworks it once built, and as a result, the world appears to be headed towards a long-term period of destabilization, Ivan Preobrazhenskiy argues.
Smash-and-grab diplomacy
From the moment he took office for the second time, Donald Trump made it clear he had not changed in the years since the end of his previous term. To achieve seemingly minor goals, he is willing to issue threats — whether of military force or of severing ties with America’s closest allies. He openly speaks not in the language of values, but of interests — which he defines in his own peculiar way. Trump’s first actions on the international stage included proposals that Canada become a U.S. state, that Panama «return» the eponymous canal linking the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean, and that Denmark’s autonomous territory of Greenland be brought under American authority. On Jan. 22, a Danish lawmaker delivered Trump an unambiguous response: “Mr. Trump, fuck off!” Official Copenhagen voiced the sentiment more diplomatically, but the message was the same. Trump likely never intended to seize Greenland, where the U.S. already has a military base. But with the Panama Canal, a mere signal from Washington was enough for Panama to withdraw from a treaty with China that included provisions for joint use of the waterway.
Trump readily wields protective tariffs on foreign goods as a weapon. He then uses them to extract political, rather than economic, concessions — whether from Mexico, Colombia, or Canada — before suspending the tariffs once his demands have been met. Countries accustomed to a far more responsible and cooperative American foreign policy, especially towards Washington’s allies, were initially shocked by this approach. They are now gradually learning how to respond.
Peace talks amid chaos
A striking example of this chaos-driven approach to foreign affairs is the negotiations over the war in Ukraine. Weeks of preparations were accompanied by a flurry of contradictory statements and initiatives from Trump and his inner circle. Feeling weaker under the shifting circumstances, Zelensky was forced to respond to most of the words coming out of the White House. Meanwhile, the leadership of the aggressor state — Russia, where Putin himself demonstrated a certain skill when it comes to sowing chaos — countered with its own barrage of conflicting rumors. The first meeting in Saudi Arabia yielded no concrete decisions, but the parties to those talks — which conspicuously excluded any representation from Kyiv — have nevertheless continued exchanging pleasantries.
So far, the Kremlin’s initial reaction is one of cautious optimism. After a brief pause and a behind-the-scenes agreement to trade a hostage American teacher for a Russian hacker, Putin received an invitation from Trump for a personal meeting in Saudi Arabia. Trump also mused that Ukraine was unlikely to regain its lost territories and that President Volodymyr Zelensky might not only lose power but even be excluded altogether from negotiations on his country’s future. Analyses of Kremlin propaganda suggest a high level of enthusiasm in Moscow — so much so that even ex-president turned microblogger Dmitry Medvedev, who in recent years has devoted himself to bloodthirsty social media tirades, appears rather pleased.
The Kremlin is acting in line with the prevailing politics of chaos. First, anyone who doesn’t blink under Trump’s pressure has a chance to come out on top — this isn’t chess, but poker, where the key is to outbluff one’s opponent. Second, unlike Zelensky, Putin is deliberately saying nothing of substance, while his press secretary, Dmitri Peskov, tersely repeats that for negotiations to begin, the root cause of the conflict must be addressed — not Putin, of course, but the imaginary spectre of “Ukrainian Nazism.” Such caveats allow the Russian leader to walk away from the talks at any moment he chooses, for whatever actual reason he might see fit to end even the semblance of a peace process.
This is how the politics of chaos operates — after all, Trump has publicly lavished praise on Putin, but he hasn’t given him any guarantees. At any moment, Trump could switch from playing the good cop to the bad cop, and once he lures Putin into direct talks, he might start banging on the table, threatening new sanctions, or even stepping up military aid to Ukraine. In that case, Putin could retreat behind a figure like Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who has previously reminded everyone that Russia’s summer ultimatum still stands and that Moscow still lays claim to the Ukrainian cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which it has been unable to capture by military force.
At any moment, Trump could switch from playing the good cop to the bad cop
For now, what likely reassures the Russian authorities (and other autocrats around the world) more than anything are Trump’s efforts to dismantle civil society development around the globe — namely, his actions to effectively shut down USAID.
Chaos in Europe
Trump has long insisted that the European Union foot the bill for Ukraine and bear the lion’s share of NATO’s defense costs. Now, EU foreign and defense ministers are collectively pleading to be included in negotiations with Russia, promising to shoulder most of the financial burden — even to the point of deploying their own troops along a future dividing line between the aggressor and the victim. Media reports describe the European reaction as shock, though many policy experts and think tanks within the EU had predicted this exact scenario for the start of Ukraine talks. As such, this “shock” reflects less surprise than outrage among European politicians, who are used to playing by complex chess rules and were unprepared for their partner and ally to sit down at the table and start flicking pieces off the board at will.
European leaders were not ready for Trump’s return
At first, world leaders reacted with harsh statements, as witnessed during the Ukraine negotiations, but they soon softened their rhetoric toward Trump — venting instead on Elon Musk. Unlike Trump, Musk not only made pronouncements about European affairs but also took direct action, whether by openly supporting the far-right AfD in Germany or attempting to “take down” the British prime minister. And since Musk is not a government official — his Department of Government Efficiency is not a state body — European politicians can criticize him relatively freely, using the billionaire as a safe outlet for their accumulated frustrations.
Unlike the European liberal mainstream, right-wing populists gathering in Madrid for a celebratory congress welcomed the new era of chaos. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, former Czech Prime Minister (and, according to the polls, a likely future one after the September elections) Andrej Babiš, Geert Wilders, leader of the Freedom Party that won the most recent Dutch parliamentary elections, France’s most prominent far-right figure Marine Le Pen, and many other European Trumpists are not only celebrating his return to the Oval Office — they are eagerly anticipating a reshaping of the European Union in his image.
“Our friend Trump, tornado Trump, has changed the world in just a couple of weeks,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán proclaimed triumphantly in Madrid.
Their first goal is to make Europe disunited — in other words, to up the chaos. For now at least, their influence remains limited, but this group, well-versed in playing by Trump’s rules, believes it is on the rise. And yet Trump himself, in keeping with his signature inconsistency, publicly favors the relatively more moderate Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni over the more radical crowd that congregated in Spain.
The suspended animation of international law
Optimism about a Trumpist future also prevails in India, a country the new U.S. president has addressed with far more respect he has shown toward Panama, China, or the EU. Still, Delhi is fully aware of the risks that come with a policy of chaos.
“Perhaps some things will go beyond the planned agenda,” India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said diplomatically in response to Trump’s return to power.
In theory, the UN should have responded to some of Trump’s statements and demands, but the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have made it clear to everyone that the organization has long been in a state of suspended animation — that it has no real influence over major independent nations, and that it is incapable of keeping up with the speed at which Trump operates. Having turned into a massive bureaucratic machine, the UN is now mostly capable of lamenting budget cuts. Panama can appeal to the United Nations for help all it wants, but no help will come. Under these circumstances, it is hardly surprising that, after Trump’s ultimatum, the Panamanian authorities chose to comply with his demands and withdraw from their investment and infrastructure agreement with China. In Latin America, this scenario is almost standard. Colombia and Venezuela initially took offense, but after Trump’s first round of tariff threats against their exports to the U.S., they agreed to accept deported migrants.
China is determined not to become Trump’s primary target — a status it enjoyed during his first term. Its response to the new tariffs has been measured, and it is cautiously offering its services to Washington — whether by helping to improve relations with the Kremlin or by acting as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran. However, judging by the U.S.-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia, there is little interest in Beijing’s overtures, and when it comes to the Middle East, Trump is relying on his established strategy. He is doubling down on support for Israel and its rapprochement with the Gulf monarchies, aiming to unite them against Iran. His signature approach — chaos as a tactic — is evident most of all in his extreme proposal to relocate all residents of Gaza.
For now, the world’s reaction to the return of Trump can be summed up not so much as shock and awe, as by outrage followed by reluctant acceptance. But despite the rising chaos, almost no one is willing to express their true feelings publicly. Even those who expect nothing good from him are hesitant to speak out, wary of provoking his ire. This only strengthens Trump’s conviction that his methods work, reinforcing his determination to push ahead using the same tried-and-true style.