An analytical report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) alleging that drones launched from vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” were used to surveil military and nuclear sites in Europe is based mainly on coincidences of time and place, rather than direct evidence, according to a counter-report by specialists from Dronewatch.eu. The Dronewatch version concludes that although the IISS report recorded 144 drone incidents in 13 countries, investigators never obtained intercepted control signals, wreckage, video footage, or other technical evidence linking any specific drone to a specific vessel.
Critics of the IISS report said its conclusion that “shadow fleet” ships were “highly likely” to have been used as launch platforms is based solely on the fact that drones were spotted while Russia-linked vessels were nearby — even though in some cases the distance to the suspected ship was more than 100 kilometers. A similar methodology was previously used in an investigation by Dronewatch and the Dutch newspaper Trouw, which reviewed 61 reports of suspected drones in Europe only to find out that many were in fact aircraft, helicopters, or celestial objects, with no evidence that drones were present.
Several high-profile incidents cited in the IISS report had already been debunked, Dronewatch said. A November 2024 flyover at Britain’s Lakenheath air base was found by investigators to have been caused by a U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter jet that had been mistaken for a drone. In Belgium, one case turned out to involve a police helicopter. Authorities in Denmark and the Netherlands have said they found no evidence of illegal drone flights, noting that the aircraft recorded were ordinary hobbyist quadcopters incapable of reaching their targets from ships in the North Sea. Danish police said in late June that none of the inspected “shadow fleet” vessels — including the Seasons 1 and Hav Dolphin, which were mentioned in the IISS report — had any connection to suspected drone sightings.
Dronewatch also pointed to technical inconsistencies. The Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones mentioned in the report are large aircraft with internal combustion engines that are visible to radar and thermal imaging systems, and they do not fly with flashing lights. Many witnesses in Europe, however, reported seeing blinking lights in the night sky. No radar or thermal imaging data confirming the presence of military drones has been published, and inspections of “shadow fleet” vessels have not found drone launch or recovery equipment.
