Russia’s Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov recently told state-controlled news agency TASS that the country’s gold output totaled 480 to 485 tons in 2025 and could reach 480 to 500 tons in 2026. At first glance, the figures look impressive, as independent estimates come in far lower. According to a report by consulting firm Metals Focus, Russia produced only around 345 tons of gold in 2025, up from 330 tons a year earlier.
Gold has become one of Russia’s most important export commodities since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, the country remained the world’s second-largest gold producer after China. Amid problems in the oil and gas sector and given record global prices for the precious metal, revenues for gold mining companies continued to rise despite sanctions.
But Maria Casey, a Russian industry expert whose name has been changed for security reasons, told The Insider that it would be wrong to conclude that Russian gold production actually rose by nearly 45% in a single year. “It’s all about terminology,” she said.
Casey explained that international organizations assess the amount of gold that was actually produced and entered the market, while Russia’s Natural Resources Ministry publishes data on gold contained in mined rock, or mineral raw material. Due to losses during mining and processing, the figures can differ by dozens of percentage points, which means it is incorrect to directly compare the Russian extraction figure of 480 to 485 tons in 2025 with international estimates of production the previous year, which come in at about 330 tons.
Casey said the Natural Resources Ministry stopped disclosing gold production data in absolute terms after 2022, switching instead to extraction figures. The two concepts are not interchangeable.
“The extraction figure means how much precious metal was lifted from the subsoil and how much of the reserves was written off. Production means how much gold was successfully extracted from ore or placer deposits and then refined,” she said.
That distinction was visible in official statistics before authorities stopped publishing production data. A state report titled “On the State and Use of Mineral Resources of the Russian Federation in 2021” claimed that gold extraction from the subsoil had risen by 2.6%, to 438.1 tons. The report said the increase was linked to planned productivity growth at complex deposits and at placer sites. But metal production from mineral raw material amounted to only 322 tons. The gap between extraction and production therefore exceeded 100 tons.
The same report noted that from 2012 to 2021, gold extraction from the subsoil in Russia increased by a factor of 1.5, while gold production from mineral raw material rose by only 57%. Casey noted that this reality further demonstrates the fact that the figures measure different things and cannot be directly compared.
Much of the gap is explained by the specifics of the mining industry. About 75% to 80% of Russia’s gold is mined at ore deposits, but due to geological conditions not all gold-bearing ore can be extracted. Some ore is also mixed with waste rock during overburden removal, the process of stripping upper layers of soil and rock to access the ore body.
In the industry, this process is called dilution. In open-pit mining, losses can range from 5% to 20%, while underground mining losses can reach 35%. Such losses are operational and are included at the deposit development planning stage.
There are also technological limits. Modern processing methods do not make it economically viable to extract all the precious metal contained in ore. Depending on ore composition and the technology used, gold recovery can range from around 50% all the way up to 95%.
“So it turns out that from a ton of ore reserves in the subsoil that initially contains, for example, one gram of gold, the final output is approximately 0.3 to 0.9 grams,” Casey said.
The technological cycle creates an additional gap between extraction and production. For example, in heap leaching, the process of extracting gold can take more than a year. In that case, reserves are already counted as mined, but the final metal has not yet been produced. Some companies also deliberately stockpile mined ore for future processing, for example while waiting for plant upgrades or more efficient extraction technologies.
“In the end, the difference between extraction and production volumes averages 30% or more,” Casey said. “This applies not only to Russian subsoil users. In global practice, the figure is no smaller, and often higher, depending on the technologies used.”
At the same time, Casey said there is real potential for growth in Russian gold mining. Polyus, the country’s largest gold producer, has said it plans to nearly double annual metal production over the next five years, with aims to bring it up to 186 tons. The main driver of growth is expected to be the launch of full-scale development at the Sukhoi Log deposit in the Irkutsk Region.
Polyus is also preparing to develop the Chulbatkan deposit in the Khabarovsk Region, which could produce more than 9 tons of gold per year. The Baimsky mining and processing plant in Chukotka expects to produce about 15 tons of the precious metal annually once it reaches full capacity. Rosatom has said it plans to mine up to 12 tons of gold a year in northern Russia. The Seligdar holding is preparing to develop the Kyuchus deposit in Arctic Yakutia, which could produce about 10 tons of gold annually. ALROSA also expects to produce more than 3 tons of gold a year at the Degdekan deposit in the Far East (at present, it mines gold only at placer deposits or as a byproduct).
Casey said other Russian companies, particularly in the country’s eastern regions, have also announced expansion plans. “This means that by 2030, the country will pass the 400-ton mark and may become the world’s largest gold producer,” she said.
