News
In this week’s summary:
- In the Kursk Region, North Korean troops joined the assault on Ukrainian positions, reportedly suffering losses — combined killed and wounded — in the hundreds.
- The Ukrainian defensive line near Kurakhove is “living its final days,” with Russian forces attempting to create an encirclement in this area.
- Despite Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian forces are continuing to «form the southern front» to encircle Pokrovsk.
- Russian troops are advancing on Velyka Novosilka from three directions, cutting off some of the supply routes of the Ukrainian garrison.
- The head of the Russian Armed Forces' Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense troops, Igor Kirillov, was killed in a scooter bombing in Moscow.
- Independent outlet Verstka reported that from January 1 to December 10, 2024, over 7,339 drones were launched across 32 Russian regions.
- The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona were able to confirm the deaths of 20,364 Russian soldiers in 2024 alone.
- The Pentagon will not allocate close to $2 billion in approved military aid for Ukraine prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Situation at the front
The week's main event was the renewed heavy fighting in the Kursk Region, reportedly involving North Korean troops on a large scale for the first time. Ukrainian sources published multiple videos (1, 2, 3, 4) showing the enemy moving in relatively large groups by the standards of modern warfare, as well as images of North Korean soldiers killed in battle (1, 2).
Ukrainian soldiers claim (1, 2) the North Koreans are using outdated tactics, ignoring drones, and not evacuating their wounded. However, alternative views have also been voiced, suggesting that the foreign troops’ actions were “fairly competent” — and that they included shooting down Ukrainian UAVs. The difference of opinion may have arisen due to different North Korean units having been observed. American sources (1, 2) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) estimate North Korean losses to be in the hundreds — counting both killed and wounded. Nevertheless, the forces fighting on the side of Moscow appear to have advanced several kilometers toward the village of Kruglenkoye.
In the Kurakhove operational area, according to Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets, the line of defense around the town is “living its final days” and will soon transform into the “Novopavlivka sector.” At the same time, the pace of the Russian advance in this sector has somewhat slowed, even if the withdrawal of Ukrainian units still appears inevitable.
Ukrainian open source intelligence (OSINT) project DeepState reported the complete elimination of the “Uspenivka pocket” by Russian forces in the southeastern part of the operational area, adding that not all Ukrainian troops managed to escape. The project's analysts highlighted the risk of a larger “pocket” forming around Kurakhove itself. Attempts to encircle the city and its surrounding areas by cutting off the main road leading out to the west were described (1, 2) by a Ukrainian serviceman who runs the “Officer ✙” Telegram channel.
In the Pokrovsk direction, despite Ukrainian counterattacks near Shevchenko, confirmed by both sides (1, 2), Russian forces are continuing to “form the southern flank” for a future encirclement of the town. However, the pace of advancement has slowed in this area as well, notes Kostiantyn Mashovets. Notably, despite challenging weather conditions, Russian troops are attempting attacks in this direction using quad bikes.
On the Vremivka salient, Russian forces have once again taken control of Novyi Komar, cutting off part of the AFU’s logistics routes to Velyka Novosilka from the northeast. In addition, they have entered Makarivka, located to the south. Russian troops are also attempting to reach Velyka Novosilka from the west by attacking near Rivnopil. According to Mashovets, holding Velyka Novosilka “will be difficult” for the AFU, as Ukrainian forces to the south are in a “very challenging position.”
Mutual strikes and sabotage
This past week witnessed one of the most high-profile acts of sabotage in the full-scale war. On Monday, Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, along with his aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, were killed in a bombing in Moscow. The explosive device that killed both men was reportedly placed in a scooter. Kirillov became the second Russian lieutenant general to die in the war and the highest-ranking Russian officer to be killed behind enemy lines. Kirillov is best remembered as a notorious conspiracy theorist spreading numerous falsehoods about U.S. biolabs and combat mosquitoes in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the interception of 297 Iranian-designed Shahed and other similar drones out of 555 launched by Russia over Ukraine in the past week. Another 240 drones were “radar-lost” — meaning either that they were decoys or were brought down using electronic warfare (EW). A Ukrainian monitoring channel shared footage illustrating a case of the latter. Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov also published footage of a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter intercepting a Russian Shahed drone with gunfire.
Ukraine’s Air Force also reported intercepting five out of ten missiles of various types launched during the same period. All five were neutralized over Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 20. Debris from the missiles fell in several parts of the city, inflicting damage on multiple buildings, including foreign embassies — injuring 13 people and killing one. The Russian Ministry of Defense described the strike as retaliation for a recent Ukrainian attack on the Rostov Region using Western-made ATACMS and Storm Shadow long-range missiles.
The following strikes on civilian infrastructure by Russian forces were reported:
- Dec. 16: Two people were killed in a strike on Kupiansk (1, 2). Preliminary data from the prosecutor's office suggest the attack was carried out using Uragan MLRS.
- Dec. 19: Kryvyi Rih was hit by a ballistic missile, damaging a two-story residential building. Another 20 buildings and the same number of cars were damaged. Six people were injured, with no fatalities.
- Dec. 20: Indiscriminate strikes on Kherson damaged residential buildings and critical infrastructure. One person was killed, nine were injured, and power supply to 60,000 residents was temporarily disrupted.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) the destruction of 177 Ukrainian drones and 10 missiles of various types out of 11 launched during overnight raids. One missile was reportedly deflected by electronic warfare (1, 2).
The independent publication Verstka has used Russian Ministry of Defense data (noting that the figures are incomplete) to calculate that more than 7,339 Ukrainian drones were launched across 32 Russian regions between January 1 and December 10, 2024.
The following strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian military and infrastructure targets were reported over the past week:
- Dec. 14: An oil depot in the Oryol Region, where at least two fuel tanks caught fire.
- Dec. 18: The Kamensky plant in the Rostov Region, which produces rocket fuel, was struck by a missile.
- Night of Dec. 19: The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov Region was damaged, with its ELOU-AVT-2.5 catalytic cracking unit — valued at no less than 5 billion rubles ($48.6 million) — sustaining damage.
Russian authorities and representatives of Moscow-installed occupation administrations reported the following Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure:
- Dec. 13: In Hola Prystan, located in the occupied part of the Kherson Region, an FPV drone hit a minibus, killing one person and injuring two others.
- Dec. 14: Drones attacked a residential building in the village of Maysky in the Belgorod Region, killing a young boy and injuring his mother and sister.
- Dec 20: The town of Rylsk in the Kursk Region came under missile fire. Updated data indicates five people were killed and 12 were injured.
Losses
The BBC Russian Service and independent outlet Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, published estimates of Russian losses in the war based on open-source reports for 2024. They were able to confirm 20,364 fatalities, with the dates of death for another 11,860 individuals still unknown. Given that at least 33,550 deaths were verified in 2023, this year could turn out to be the deadliest for the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Five people were killed and another seven were injured following a fire in a detention facility for deserters in Yakutsk. According to the “Free Yakutia” foundation, the facility housed wounded soldiers who refused to return to the front. These Russian servicemen were reportedly tortured — including by being beaten, denied access to toilets, and forced to listen to songs by the pro-war singer Shaman. A source cited by Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti claimed that the fire was started by the detainees themselves as part of an escape attempt.
Weapons and military aid
The Pentagon has admitted that it will not be able to allocate at least $2 billion in approved military aid to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) before the end of Joe Biden's term, leaving these funds at the disposal of Donald Trump's administration. Meanwhile, plans are in place to fully utilize the remaining $1.2 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program.
A source cited by Reuters has also indicated that NATO, rather than the U.S., will be in charge of coordinating military aid to Ukraine going forward.
During the week, the following military aid packages for Ukraine were announced:
- UK Defense Secretary John Healey raised the possibility of deploying a limited contingent to Ukraine to train Ukrainian soldiers. He also announced an additional military aid package worth £225 million ($285 million).
- The German defense corporation Rheinmetall will deliver another 20 Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine, with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2025. By January 2025, the company will also supply Ukraine with tens of thousands of powder charges for 155mm artillery shells.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the delivery of a new IRIS-T SLM air defense system battery to Ukraine, along with two additional launchers for the system.
- The government of Norway allocated approximately 2.7 billion kroner (close to $242 million) to strengthen Ukraine’s naval defenses.
- The government of Denmark allocated over $290 million to enhance Ukraine’s air defense and support the operation of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
- Members of the “drone coalition” will begin delivering “tens of thousands” of various types of UAVs to Ukraine starting in January next year.
- The EU plans to train an additional 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of February 2025.
Meanwhile, Russia’s stockpiles of armored vehicles and artillery rounds at storage bases have decreased to half of their pre-war levels, with the remaining equipment largely in poor technical condition. Tanks such as the T-62M and T-62MV are being deployed to the frontlines without any signs of upgrades or modifications.