Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Russia’s losses in Kursk exceed Ukraine’s, battles erupt for Velyka Novosilka

In this week's summary:

• Russian forces are employing quad bikes with trailers for assaults in the Kurakhove operational area.
• Ukrainian sources acknowledge the effectiveness of “surgically precise infiltrations” in Kurakhove and Toretsk.
• In the Vremivka salient, Russian troops have initiated battles for, and threaten to encircle, Velyka Novosilka.
• The Insider debunks a Kremlin falsehood about alleged mass killings of civilians by Ukrainian troops in Selydove.
• The “legendary” Russian General Rustam Muradov has been named First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
• Russia launched a large-scale air raid on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, purportedly in retaliation for recent ATACMS strikes on targets in the Kursk Region.
• Open source intelligence (OSINT) analyst Naalsio confirmed that visually verified Russian equipment losses in the Kursk Region have surpassed those of Ukraine.
• The Biden administration is expected to fall short in its efforts to spend all funds allocated for military aid to Ukraine before Trump's inauguration.

Situation at the front

Throughout the week, the situation worsened for Ukrainian forces in the Kurakhove operational area. Russian troops advanced to Berestky on the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir and achieved some success in the “pocket” south of Kurakhove. However, Ukrainian forces managed to stabilize the situation in that area. To transport troops to the front lines in this sector, the Russian military has begun using a new vehicle — quad bikes with trailers.

In the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced within Toretsk itself (known as Dzerzhinsk until 2016) and in the area of Nelepivka to the south. According to a Ukrainian service member and author of the Ofitser✙ Telegram channel, Russian troops are operating within Toretsk’s urban area not in groups but individually, searching for breaches in Ukrainian defenses. Another Ukrainian channel, In Factum, highlights the tactic of “surgically precise infiltrations” in Toretsk and Kurakhove, characterized by rapid advances and the occupation of positions behind enemy lines to disrupt defensive coordination. Drone footage shows that Toretsk has been almost completely destroyed during the fighting.

In the Vremivka salient, southwest of Kurakhove, Russian forces managed to approach the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka and capture Rozdolne, as confirmed by geolocated evidence of a flag drop. The author of the Ofitser✙ channel believes that Russian command aims to encircle Velyka Novosilka, while his colleague Stanislav Bunyatov acknowledges numerous adverse factors affecting Ukrainian forces despite the terrain being favorable for defense.

Russian forces also launched an offensive in the Pokrovsk direction, nearly gaining control of the settlement of Zhovte and advancing toward Shevchenko, Pushkine, Hryhorivka, and Petrivka. Meanwhile, footage emerged showing Ukrainian troops repelling a Russian assault on Lysivka, south of Pokrovsk. Additionally, Russian propagandists attempted to accuse Ukrainian forces of orchestrating a “second Bucha” in Selydove, a settlement captured several weeks ago. The Insider has thoroughly debunked this false claim.

Amid large Russian losses and the inability of Ukrainian forces to stabilize the front, both sides made significant changes in their senior military leadership.

Russian Southern Group of Forces Commander, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, was removed from his post — likely due to the situation on the Siverskyi salient, where even pro-war channels noted the senseless assaults and false reports. Anashkin's replacement is Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik, who previously commanded the Eastern Group of Forces. Additionally, the “legendary” Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, known for taking heavy losses during the failed winter 2022-2023 attempt to capture Vuhledar, was appointed Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.

On the Ukrainian side, the Commander of the Ground Forces was replaced by Major General Mykhailo Drapaty, who had served as Deputy Chief of Staff since January 2024 and took command of the Kharkiv Joint Task Force in May, halting the Russian advance on the city. Colonel Oleh Apostol, Commander of the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade, was appointed Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

Over the past week, the Ukrainian Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) intercepting 356 Russian UAVs, including Iranian-designed Shahed drones, out of the 724 that were launched at Ukrainian territory. Another 336 drones were “radar lost,” meaning they were either neutralized by electronic warfare or turned out to be decoys. Le Monde reports that Ukraine has learned how to remotely change the flight paths of drones, thereby diverting Shaheds off course. On the night of Nov. 26, a record number of drones — 188 in total — were launched. The attack led to power outages affecting 70% of the Ternopil Region.

Additionally, reports indicated the launch of 95 missiles of various types, with 91 fired during a massive raid on Ukraine's energy infrastructure on the night of Nov. 28. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the neutralization of 80 missiles; however, this figure sparked criticism (1, 2, 3) from a number of Ukrainian sources, which questioned the effectiveness of the country's air defense system. It was also noted that some of the Russian missiles used cluster munitions.

Infrastructure targets were hit in many regions of Ukraine, resulting in a total of five casualties (1, 2, 3). The Russian Ministry of Defense and Vladimir Putin described the strike as a response to Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles on Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense also reported the destruction of ATACMS missile launchers, along with “Neptun” and “Hrim-2” systems (the operational readiness or use of the latter has not been confirmed during the war).

Additionally, the following strikes by Russian forces on civilian infrastructure were reported:

• On Nov. 25, the center of Kharkiv was hit by S-300/S-400 SAMs, leaving 19 people wounded, about 40 buildings damaged, and three cars burned. Ballistic Iskander-M missiles struck Odesa, injuring 10 people and damaging a non-operational administrative building, eight residential buildings, and eight cars.
• On the night of Nov. 29, following an air raid, a guard at a children's clinic in the Dniprovskyi District of Kyiv was wounded. In the Odesa Region, seven people were injured, and 13 residential houses, garages, railway infrastructure, and a vehicle were damaged in three settlements.

Furthermore, Russian Aerospace Forces “dropped” an Kh-101 cruise missile in Kalmykia and an aerial bomb in the Belgorod Region, with no casualties reported.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) the destruction of 216 aircraft-type Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and the Crimean Peninsula. Over the week, Ukrainian forces struck the following known targets:

• The position area of the S-400 SAM system in the Kursk Region with ATACMS missiles. Radar systems and two launchers were destroyed, and five servicemen and three civilian specialists from the Almaz-Antey corporation were killed.
• The Kursk-Vostochny airfield and an air defense position in its vicinity, also using ATACMS, resulting in two military servicemen being injured. The consequences were described as “quite modest.” The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged both strikes (though it omitted mention of the fatalities) and threatened “retaliatory measures.”
• An oil depot in the Kaluga Region, where three out of ten tanks were destroyed, and another one was damaged.
• An oil depot in the Rostov Region, which had been left burning for 16 days following a previous raid in August 2024.

Losses

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, updated their estimates of Russian military casualties in the war based on open-source reports. A total of 80,973 fatalities have been recorded so far, with 2,644 added to the list between Nov. 15 and Nov. 29. There has been an increase in casualties among those who sign contracts voluntarily — soldiers from this group typically die during the third to fourth week of their deployment at the front.

The Economist estimated total Ukrainian losses at 400,000 seriously wounded and about 60,000–100,000 killed. These figures were derived from reports by defense ministries of various countries, as well as assessments from independent analysts.

According to the analyst Naalsio, based on visual materials, from Nov. 11 to Nov. 25, 2024, Russian forces lost at least 80 units of equipment in the Kursk Region, while Ukrainian forces lost at least 22 units. As a result, total Russian losses in this operational area have finally surpassed Ukrainian losses (383 units versus 337 units, respectively).

Weapons and military vehicles

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration does not have enough time left in its presidential term to deliver all approved weapons to Ukraine under the PDA program using remaining funds. However, the White House has requested an additional $24 billion from Congress, of which $16 billion would be used to replenish Pentagon stockpiles, and $8 billion would be allocated to procure weapons for Ukraine through the USAI program.

This week, the following military aid packages to Ukraine were announced:

• The United Kingdom has transferred several dozen Storm Shadow missiles. This is the first such delivery from the new Labour government — and the first to take place since approval was given to use these missiles for strikes on internationally recognized Russian territory.
• Spain is preparing to send Ukraine a new batch of nine refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks and a battery of the HAWK air defense system. Madrid has apparently already delivered 120mm self-propelled mortars based on VAMTAC armored vehicles, which were seen in service with the Ukrainian forces.
• The Netherlands has announced the transfer of three Patriot missile defense launchers to Ukraine. Initially, it was planned to assemble a full system with the help of several partners, but this has not materialized.
• Germany has increased the number of MRAP-class armored vehicles delivered to Ukraine to 73, which is less than a quarter of the 400 vehicles initially planned for delivery in 2024.
• Lithuania will soon transfer the first installment of funding to Ukraine for the production of long-range drones.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has assessed Russia’s stockpiles of domestically produced missiles at 200 units of the X-101 and 300 units of the Iskander system (this estimate was made before the most recent mass missile strike). Additionally, this week, the Russian Armed Forces received at least one more Su-34 fighter-bomber, which is the main carrier of air-dropped bombs with guided missile systems. Dmitry Medvedev also reported an eightfold increase in tank production — however, according to tank manufacturing historian Andrei Tarasenko, most of these deliveries still consist of refurbished tanks from storage bases that receive minimal upgrades, and new tank production does not exceed 250-280 units per year.

This week, it was also revealed that the producer of Lancet drones, Zala Aero, is circumventing sanctions with the help of Chinese companies, and hydroabrasive machines for military equipment production continue to arrive in Russia via third countries, including from the United States. On the other hand, Lithuania has severed ties with a company supplying safes to the Lithuanian Armed Forces and other European armies after a joint investigation by The Insider and Siena revealed that the company had Russian owners.

Previous weekly summary (Nov. 16 to Nov. 22, 2024):

Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Ukraine hit with ICBM, Russia targeted by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, battles go on in Toretsk and Kurakhove