Showdown in Istanbul: The arrest of a popular mayor is threatening the Turkish president’s grip on power

RU

On March 18, Turkey’s Council of Higher Education (Yükseköğretim Kurulu, YÖK) revoked Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s university diploma, rendering him ineligible to run for president — higher education is a requirement for candidates. Istanbul University, where the mayor studied, backed the decision. Students, outraged by what they saw as a politically motivated move, quickly organized protests. After news of İmamoğlu’s detention spread, students from major universities in Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and other cities poured into the streets, joining opposition rallies. Police have responded with tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets in an attempt to break up the crowds, but the protests only seem to be growing.

The charges against Ekrem İmamoğlu, widely seen as the main rival to Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming 2028 presidential election, have been categorically rejected by both İmamoğlu himself and by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to which he belongs.

CHP leader Özgür Özel called the high-profile arrest of Istanbul’s mayor a coup. “We urge our entire nation to resist this coup attempt and fully support any response that follows from our organization, civil society, and professional associations,” Özel said in a statement published on the CHP website.

Even before İmamoğlu’s arrest, Turkish authorities had been preparing for the reaction from its political opponents — and from the public at large. Almost immediately after the mayor was detained, access to YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp was slowed across Turkey. Roads leading to Istanbul’s city hall were blocked, nearby metro stations were closed, and Taksim Square — a traditional gathering place for Istanbul’s protesters — was sealed off. Despite these measures, since March 19, the CHP has been organizing daily mass rallies in Saraçhane Square in front of city hall. Street protests demanding the government’s resignation and showing support for İmamoğlu have erupted in nearly every city across the country.

Who is Ekrem Imamoglu?

Fifty-five-year-old Ekrem İmamoğlu is one of the brightest stars of Turkey’s opposition. His political career began in 2008 when he joined the CHP. A year later, he became the head of the party’s branch in Istanbul’s Beylikdüzü district. Four years after that, in 2013, he ran for district mayor and defeated the candidate from Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK). İmamoğlu held the position for five years but was still not a household name — not even in the capital. Nevertheless, with the CHP experiencing an internal crisis, he was tabbed to go up against Erdogan’s candidate for mayor in 2019 and turned out to be a perfect fit for the job.

Moreover, he managed to appeal to moderately religious voters — all the more important given that Erdogan had long claimed that the CHP was hostile to religious citizens. There was some truth to this, as the opposition party had consistently positioned itself as staunchly secular. İmamoğlu skillfully navigated this issue: on one side of him stood his wife with her hair uncovered, on the other, his mother in a hijab. The politician himself openly spoke about his faith, frequently attending Friday prayers in public. Thanks to his efforts, religion became a normalized topic of discourse in the rhetoric of Turkey’s secular opposition party.

İmamoğlu’s victory propelled him to national prominence. Erdogan himself — who had served as the city’s mayor from 1995 to 1998 — once said that “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.” Beyond its historical significance and population of around 16 million, Istanbul is also Turkey’s economic powerhouse, generating a third of the country’s GDP.

İmamoğlu in fact won Istanbul three times, with his second victory coming after a repeat election was called following AK’s refusal to accept the results the first time around. In the first round in 2019, he secured 48.8% of the vote, narrowly defeating his opponent, Binali Yıldırım, who received 48.55%. The second time around, however, İmamoğlu won by a landslide, with 54.21% to Yıldırım’s 44.99%. (That same year, the ruling party also lost Turkey’s second most important city, Ankara, where CHP’s Mansur Yavaş became mayor.)

İmamoğlu’s third victory doubled as the most significant political defeat of Erdogan’s political career. In 2024, he won re-election with 51.08% of the vote. But more importantly, municipal elections were held all across the country, and CHP won 37.77% of the overall vote, edging out the ruling party, which secured 35.49%. This victory gave the CHP control of 15 major cities, 21 provinces, and 344 districts, vastly improving its performance compared to the 2019 elections. In Ankara, the center-right CHP incumbent Mansur Yavaş took home a resounding 60.42%.

Just eight months earlier, Erdogan had won the 2023 presidential election with an official 52.18% support in a run-off against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was backed by an alliance of six opposition parties. Both İmamoğlu and Yavaş sat out the presidential race.

The indispensable candidate

The authorities’ campaign against İmamoğlu began back in 2022, when he was accused of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Council and sentenced to nearly three years in prison. The sentence also included a ban on political activity, and many believe this prosecution was one of the reasons İmamoğlu did not attempt to run in the 2023 presidential election. His appeal against the court ruling is still under review.

Today, the political motives behind the case against the popular mayor of Istanbul are even more apparent. On March 23, 2025 — the same day the CHP was set to nominate its candidate for the upcoming presidential election — Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested by court order and taken to Marmara Prison. Despite his arrest, the party’s candidate list still included only one name: his. In an open vote held across major cities, where not only party members but also non-affiliated voters could participate, nearly 15 million people cast their ballots for İmamoğlu.

The high turnout appears genuine. Social media is flooded with videos of long lines of citizens waiting to show their support, causing the official voting period to be extended by two hours. Nevertheless, polling stations still could not accommodate all those wanting to cast their ballots.

That same evening, a rally in support of the arrested and suspended İmamoğlu took place near Istanbul’s city hall. According to unofficial estimates, around half a million people participated. Yet panoramic shots of the massive crowd were notably absent from major Turkish media outlets like CNN Türk, NTV, and TRT Haber. The Supreme Council for Radio and Television warned channels covering the protests live that they could lose their broadcasting licenses. As a result, coverage of the demonstrations is available only through opposition media.

The charges

İmamoğlu is accused of leading a criminal organization that was allegedly involved in bid-rigging, large-scale fraud, the illegal acquisition of personal data, bribery, and extortion through fake tenders. A judge ruled that another charge — that of aiding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated a terrorist organization in Turkey — be dropped, stating that İmamoğlu was already under arrest on the first set of charges. However, the investigation into this allegation remains open.

Accusations of “aiding a terrorist organization” have long been a hallmark of Erdoğan’s approach to dealing with the country’s political opposition. Since the 2024 municipal elections, 14 mayors — ten from the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Parti) and four from the CHP — have been arrested or removed from office on charges of “leading an armed terrorist organization,” “membership in an armed terrorist organization,” or spreading “propaganda for a terrorist organization.” In several municipalities, this has led to de facto power takeovers, as government-appointed trustees from the ruling party were installed in place of the elected mayors.

Previously, such accusations were mostly directed at members of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. However, the term “aiding a terrorist organization” has increasingly become a tool for intimidation and division within Turkish society. The expansion of these charges to opposition members is a recent trend that began after Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli suggested that Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, could persuade the organization to lay down its arms in exchange for a potential reduction of his sentence — hinting at a possible normalization of relations with Kurdish political forces. Following this, Öcalan issued a statement calling on his supporters to end their armed struggle for independence.

However, normalization with the Kurds has forced the government to look for a new enemy, and it appears that the CHP — the leading party in the polls — has taken on that role. For years, Erdoğan and his party enjoyed higher approval ratings than the fragmented opposition. But the situation has shifted in recent years. Surveys of the population have shown Erdoğan’s declining popularity, while opposition figures Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş have surpassed the incumbent president in both trust ratings and overall popularity.

Undoubtedly, Turkey’s dire economic situation has played a key role in Erdoğan’s falling approval. According to official statistics (from TÜİK), inflation in February 2025 reached 39.05%, while independent estimates (from ENAG) put it even higher — at 79.51%.

Will Erdogan withstand the pressure?

When watching coverage of the current protests on social media and opposition outlets, one might get the impression that the entire country is demonstrating — but this is not the case. Over the two decades of Erdoğan’s rule, Turkish society has been nearly evenly split. The president has his loyal supporters — his “core electorate” — who seem to support him no matter what.

However, things might be changing. It is clear that the ongoing protests are the largest in modern Turkish history — not only in terms of turnout but also in geographical scope. In addition to the three major cities — Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir — demonstrations have spread to Trabzon, Muğla, Adana, Mersin, Fethiye, Alanya, and Bursa. In other words, protests are occurring in almost all of Turkey’s major cities. This suggests that the previous balance of political division in society has shifted in favor of the opposition.

The government is all but certain to take countermeasures. Among opposition circles, there is speculation that the next targets of the authorities will be the two most prominent opposition figures after Ekrem İmamoğlu: Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and CHP leader Özgür Özel. There are also rumors about alleged secret witnesses claiming that some delegates at the party congress where Özel was elected leader were bribed. If these claims gain traction, the results of the congress could be annulled, and a government-appointed trustee could replace him.

In that event, former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu might return to lead the party. Such a move could prompt many of its members to leave, either to form a new organization or to join an existing one, such as Muharrem İnce’s Homeland Party. İnce, who ran as the CHP candidate in the 2018 presidential election, could attract some disillusioned opposition members. If events unfold this way, it may weaken the opposition and further consolidate power for Erdoğan’s ruling party.

It’s also important to recall that Erdoğan, with his propaganda machinery, has the ability to shift the blame for economic hardships onto the opposition — and he is already trying to do so. The ongoing polarization in society makes it difficult for the opposition to communicate its message to the supporters of the ruling party, who see the arrests as mere corruption cases, with their main concern being rising prices. For them, the protests are just seen as a barrier to improving their standard of living.

At this moment, the opposition CHP has gained the backing of several other opposition political groups. However, the party needs to maintain this support and unite the opposition even further if it is to unseat Erdogan.

CHP leader Özgür Özel, speaking at nightly rallies outside the Istanbul City Hall, has said that the opposition is prepared with plans “A,” “B,” “C,” and so on, all the way to the last letter of the alphabet, in its efforts to challenge the current regime. However, he made it clear that this will not be an easy or quick fight. Özel stated that the main goal of the CHP now is to push the government into holding early elections in November 2025: “We are telling Mr. Tayyip: These past five years have already been controversial. There are just two and a half years left. Let’s hold elections. Let the people choose who they want.”