France's political deadlock: Left-centrist tug-of-war may lead to prolonged parliamentary void

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal submitted his resignation to the president on July 8. Emmanuel Macron signed it just over a week later, but Attal's government will continue to “perform duties” for the unspecified duration until a replacement is found. There are no obvious candidates for the job. According to French media, the parliament, and possibly the entire country, has become “unmanageable” following the early elections called by Macron in June.

President Macron speaks of the need to create a coalition of the republican majority, which could include deputies from both left and right parties (with the exception of “radicals”). Such a coalition does not exist yet, and even the right-wing “republicans” are not ready to join it. Moderate leftists will not support a coalition with the center if it is possible for them to form a union of more left-leaning forces, but so far no such efforts have succeeded. Almost a quarter of the seats in parliament are held by Marine Le Pen's far-right party, but neither centrists nor leftists are ready to cooperate with them, so they have no chance of getting the necessary majority.

Currently, the left-wing New Popular Front holds the strongest position. This electoral bloc was formed to counterbalance the far-right National Rally and the liberal pro-presidential “Ensemble” coalition. The New Popular Front secured a plurality of seats in parliament, giving them the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and attempt to form a government. However, to succeed, they need an absolute majority in parliament — a significant challenge.

Why the left succeeded

Snap parliamentary elections were held in France on June 30 and July 7, after French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of parliament on June 9. The reason for the president’s decision was the June 6-9 elections to the European Parliament, in which Marine Le Pen's far-right party National Rally won a 31.37% plurality in France.

“France needs a clear majority to act calmly and in agreement,” Emmanuel Macron said in an address to his fellow citizens announcing his decision to dissolve parliament. Perhaps by calling early elections the French president hoped to demonstrate that the far-right is not the main political force in the country — and also to strengthen the positions of his Renaissance party.

After the first round of the early French parliamentary vote, many of the leading candidates were from the far-right, leading to some predictions that they might secure an absolute majority. However, in the second round, the “republican front” strategy, which the French have regularly used since the mid-20th century to prevent far-right victories, worked to keep Le Pen’s forces out of power. More than 200 left-leaning and centrist candidates who advanced to the second round withdrew from the race in order to turn races into one-on-one competitions between far-right and non-far-right competitors. In this sense, Macron's strategy succeeded, even if the plurality of seats in parliament was secured not by his Ensemble grouping, but by the New Popular Front coalition.

The success of the left coalition formed just three weeks before the first round, surprised both observers and the French public. This outcome is attributed less to a shift towards leftist sentiments among the electorate and more to the threat posed by the far-right, as well as widespread disappointment in the centrists who have been in power for the past seven years.

The New Popular Front

The New Popular Front (NFP) is a coalition of leftist political forces: France Unbowed (led by founder Jean-Luc Mélenchon), the Socialist Party (led by Olivier Faure), The Greens (led by Marine Tondelier), the Communist Party (led by Fabien Roussel), and several other small parties and independent left-wing politicians.

The left-wing forces announced the formation of their pre-election coalition on June 10, the day after the dissolution of parliament. The previous leftist alliance, the New Ecological and Social People's Union (Nouvelle Union Populaire écologique et sociale, NUPES), established in advance of the 2022 elections, collapsed at the end of 2023, six months before the European Parliament elections. This was due to numerous disagreements, the last of which involved the stance of France Unbowed and its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon's on the war in the Middle East and their refusal to recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Following the June elections, France Unbowed — still under the leadership of the 72-year-old Mélenchon — emerged as the most significant force within the Popular Front, holding 71 seats in parliament. The Socialists secured 61 seats, The Greens took 33, and the remaining members each won fewer than 10 seats each. However, this does not mean Mélenchon's supporters will dominate the coalition. The New Popular Front has developed a joint program that smooths out the most controversial issues, which include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Mélenchon has indirectly justified Vladimir Putin's actions, stating that the Russian president “does what he considers his duty.” The France Unbowed leader has argued that “peace is possible [...] on the condition that [...] there can be no outcome other than one where there is neither victor nor loser.” He has also urged France to recognize Palestine as a state, described Israel's military actions as genocide, and labeled the Hamas atrocity of October 7 as a war crime rather than a terrorist attack. However, these views are not reflected in the Front's general program, which primarily focuses on internal socio-economic issues.

What the left is proposing

The joint program of the New Popular Front, published on June 14, is divided into three parts that are based on the urgency of the proposed measures and reforms.

In the first 15 days, deputies plan to “break” from the centrist policies implemented by the Macron administration in recent years.

The most discussed measures in this part of the program include:

• Repealing the 2023 pension reform, which raised the retirement age to 64, and restoring the right to retire at 60.
• Increasing the minimum wage by 14%, from 1,400 to 1,600 euros per month.
• Implementing price ceilings for essential products and services, including food, energy, and fuel.

In the following 100 days, the New Popular Front promises to pass laws aimed at improving the social situation of the French people. These include indexing wages to inflation, canceling the electricity tax and the planned increase in gas prices, and banning the disconnection of electricity and water for non-payment. Additionally, they plan to change the progressive tax scale, returning to 14 income levels instead of the current five, along with other reforms to “abolish the privileges of billionaires.”

The most ambitious aspect of the left's proposals for the “subsequent months” involves a parliamentary reform aimed at establishing a Sixth Republic in France with increased parliamentary powers. These would include transitioning to a proportional electoral system, abolishing Article 49.3 of the constitution (which allows the government to pass laws without parliamentary approval), and enhancing democracy at the local level.

Additionally, the program features a broad range of measures addressing climate issues, women's and LGBTQ+ rights, education, healthcare, housing, agriculture, and immigration. For instance, the Popular Front plans to repeal laws tightening migration and asylum regulations enacted under Macron, create an additional 500,000 places in nurseries, introduce “menstrual leave,” implement a plan to combat violence against LGBTQ+ individuals, and work towards carbon neutrality by 2050. However, these measures receive less attention compared to the coalition’s proposed social and economic reforms.

The left's foreign policy focuses on advocating for peace and advancing French diplomacy. On Ukraine, their stance is similar to the current government's: they support measures aimed at ensuring that Vladimir Putin's war of aggression ends in failure and that its architects face accountability from internationally recognized legal bodies. The New Popular Front promises to continue arms supplies to Ukraine, proposes writing off Kyiv’s external debt, calls for seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs who support their country’s military actions, and even supports the idea of deploying peacekeepers to protect nuclear power plants.

In contrast, their position on the Gaza Strip war differs significantly from Macron's policies. The left calls for ending support for the Netanyahu government, imposing sanctions, recognizing Palestine as a state, halting arms supplies to Israel, and backing the International Criminal Court's actions against both Hamas leaders and the Israeli Prime Minister. They also advocate for facilitating the early release of hostages and describe the Hamas attack as a “terrorist massacre.”

Regarding the European Union, the New Popular Front advocates for revising free trade agreements, reforming the EU's common agricultural policy, and introducing wealth and excess profit taxes at the EU level similar to those proposed for France.

Is the left's program realistic?

The program has faced predictable criticism from the business community and representatives of the current government. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has warned of a potential “financial crisis and economic downturn in France.” Patrick Martin, the head of Medef (Union of French Entrepreneurs), believes that implementing proposals to reverse the pension reform or alter the progressive tax scale would be “fatal” for the French economy. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin dismissed the program as “delirious” and urged those with “reasonable left views” to disassociate themselves from it.

The implementation of the New Popular Front's program would require an additional 125 billion euros from the budget for the years 2024 and 2025 alone. Moreover, the current political landscape presents challenges to its implementation. The left does not hold an absolute majority or have allies in the National Assembly, and the Senate is dominated by the center-right. The left will only have a chance to pass or repeal laws without parliamentary obstacles if they manage to form a government.

France's new government: the left vs. centrists

The new National Assembly began its work on July 18. It is anticipated that it will propose the new government’s composition in the coming days. In France, the President appoints the Prime Minister, who typically represents the political force holding a majority in parliament. The Prime Minister then appoints the government.

Typically, parliamentary elections in France follow immediately after presidential elections, which usually results in the president’s party securing a majority in parliament, enabling the formation of a government aligned with the head of state. There have been no periods of cohabitation in France for over 20 years, after the president’s term was reduced from seven to five years in 2008.

It is too early to discuss the possibility of a left government coexisting with Macron. In a letter to the French on July 10, the president stated that “no one won” in the parliamentary elections, and that all coalitions and parties are currently in the minority. He called for dialogue and compromises and pledged to appoint a prime minister once a consensus is reached. Meanwhile, the presidential bloc Ensemble is working to build a majority coalition in parliament, reaching out to both right- and left-centrist parties.

Even if Emmanuel Macron appoints a prime minister from the left coalition, parliament could still vote for a motion of no confidence. The far-right has already indicated they will support a no-confidence vote against any government that includes representatives from France Unbowed or The Greens (which together hold 104 out of the 178 left-leaning seats in parliament).

Macron's chances of forming a centrist government are bolstered by the current fragmentation among the left, which has not nominated a candidate for prime minister since the election results were announced. France Unbowed has not pushed for its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, instead proposing other figures from its party. The Socialists have argued that only their leader, Olivier Faure, stands a chance of gaining Macron's approval.

The 73-year-old Huguette Bello, head of the Regional Council of Réunion and a former communist who supports France Unbowed (but is not formally part of it), was discussed as a potential consensus candidate . However, she declined the offer due to a lack of support from the Socialist Party.

In response, the Socialists, together with the Communists and The Greens, proposed 73-year-old economist Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation. But this proposal was rejected by France Unbowed, which deemed her political views to be too closely aligned with Macron’s centrist positions. Additionally, France Unbowed argued that a prime minister from the civil society sphere could not ensure the implementation of their pre-election program.

As a result, the left coalition was on the brink of collapse even before the National Assembly began its work. France Unbowed announced the suspension of discussions on the government composition until a decision is made regarding a joint candidate for the head of the National Assembly.

After long discussions, by the evening of July 17, a consensus was reached on this position — the left jointly proposed 74-year-old André Chassaigne from the Communist Party for that post.

Despite internal challenges, the left retains support from politically active segments of society, and several trade unions have already threatened strikes if Macron does not appoint a leftist government. These threats could pose a significant challenge to the French authorities just days before the start of the Olympic Games.

However, Macron’s policies under a potential cohabitation scenario are unlikely to shift leftward. A coalition with the right-wing “Republicans” party seems more likely, which would enable the current president to secure the support of a majority in parliament once again.

Additionally, despite their defeat, the far-right's influence in the French parliament has grown following the early elections. Marine Le Pen’s allies now hold 142 seats, up from 89 in the previous assembly. The far-right also received the highest number of votes in absolute terms and secured the most seats in parliament as a single party (despite lagging behind both the leftist and centrist coalitions).

Even if the left manages to unite and form a government, cohabitation could quickly lead to a vote of no confidence from parliament or a new dissolution of the National Assembly one year after its formation, when the president will again have the option to dissolve parliament. Or else, whatever government ultimately forms could last until the end of Macron’s term in 2027. Nearly a month after the snap election, its consequences remain unclear.