Threats from Moscow, “detached” demands, largest POW exchange to date: Key takeaways from the Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey

A meeting between delegations from Russia and Ukraine concluded earlier today in Istanbul, Turkey — the first direct talks since attempts were made to resolve the conflict in the spring of 2022. Here are the main outcomes:

• The sole concrete outcome of the talks was an agreement on a prisoner exchange, expected to take place soon on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis. If carried out, it would mark the largest swap since the beginning of the war.
  
  
• Ukraine requested a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state — Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Moscow has “taken note of this,” commented Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky.
  
  
• Russia demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine as a condition for a ceasefire. The Ukrainian delegation called these demands “non-starters” that were “detached from reality.”
  
  
• Russia also threatened further territorial advances, specifically into the Kharkiv and Sumy regions of Ukraine. Medinsky invoked the Great Northern War (1700-1721), saying: “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” (Medinsky’s quip was reported by The Economist’s Oliver Carroll, who cited a source familiar with the talks.)
  
  
• Russia rejected a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, according to Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko.

Despite the absence of a breakthrough, both sides expressed readiness for further negotiations and have reached a “principal agreement” to hold another bilateral meeting, according to an Anadolu Agency report citing Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The exact date of the next round of negotiations has not yet been made public.

According to Reuters, the Ukrainian delegation had hoped to discuss a ceasefire and arrange a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Ahead of the talks, Ukrainian delegation head Rustem Umerov posted on Facebook that peace would only be possible if Russia showed a willingness to take “concrete actions,” including the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, the return of deported Ukrainian children, and prisoner exchanges under the “all for all” formula.

During the Istanbul talks, Russian state media chose to focus on a meeting of Russia’s Security Council. Chaired by Vladimir Putin, the session focused on “guaranteeing information security.” Official footage of Putin was published by TASS and Kremlin pool journalists on Telegram alongside coverage of the Russia-Ukraine talks and a speech by Turkey’s foreign minister.

Prior to the Russia-Ukraine meeting, Medinsky held talks with U.S. official Michael Anton, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department, according to BBC News Russian. Earlier that day, delegations from the U.S., Ukraine, and Turkey also met at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace.

According to media reports, the direct Russia–Ukraine meeting lasted for less than an hour.

Before that, the Ukrainian delegation met in Istanbul with Trump envoy Keith Kellogg and national security officials from the UK, Germany, and France, according to Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne, citing a diplomatic source.

The bilateral talks were initially scheduled for May 15, the same day President Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After that, Zelensky departed for Albania to attend the European Political Community Summit.