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Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia counterattacks in Kursk as one of its Su-30SM fighter jets is reportedly shot down over the Black Sea

In this week's summary:

  • Russian forces launched a counterattack in the Kursk Region, taking back several settlements on the border of the Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts.
  • Ukrainian forces launched an offensive on a new front in the Kursk direction — in the southern part of the Glushkovsky District.
  • In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops are advancing on the southern flank near Ukrainsk and Selydove.
  • A critical situation is developing for Ukrainian forces near Vuhledar and on the left bank of the Oskil River.
  • The largest air attack on the Moscow Region since Russia unleashed its full-scale invasion in 2022 resulted in the first recorded civilian death.
  • A Russian Su-30SM fighter jet crashed over the Black Sea after reportedly being shot down by a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS).
  • Russian prisoners of war have been denied phone calls to their relatives — a move taken in response to the Russian side’s regular executions of surrendering Ukrainian soldiers.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced complaints about insufficient deliveries of long-range Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles to Kyiv.

Situation at the front

This week, the front in Russia’s Kursk Region, which had remained relatively stable in recent weeks, began to shift. Russian forces launched attacks (1, 2) at the border of the Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts. These appeared to have significantly pushed back Ukrainian troops. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported the recapture of 10 settlements, though the presence of Russian forces has so far only been confirmed in Krasnooktyabrskoe, Snagost, and Komarovka. As a result, the Glushkovsky District, previously surrounded by Ukrainian forces on three sides, has been relieved in the eastern direction by Russian troops.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses on the southern edge of the Kursk Region’s Glushkovsky District and secured positions in the treelines near Veseloe, despite Russia’s MoD claiming the attack was repelled. Ukrainian forces also used HIMARS rockets with cluster munitions to strike Russian personnel and equipment near a crossing on the Seym River.

In Ukraine’s Donetsk Region, Russian forces have not resumed their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but have advanced in the south of this part of the front line, creating a threatening situation in Ukrainsk, completing the capture of Krasnohorivka, and attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in the “Nevelske bulge” between Krasnohorivka and Karlivka. However, the attack on Hostre resulted in heavy Russian losses of armored equipment, while near Selydove, Russian units had to retreat behind the railway line. Around Pokrovsk itself, Russian forces actively disrupted Ukrainian logistics, destroying two bridges (1, 2) and a crossing.

Russian serviceman Svyatoslav Golikov believes the shift to the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction is aimed at securing the flank for a future advance on the city of Pokrovsk, in order to prevent a Ukrainian counterattack — however, in his view, this counterattack could have been avoided using recon-fire complexes to detect and target concentrations of Ukrainian troops and equipment preparing for counterattacks. He also pointed out Russia's shortage of artillery and air support in the area, as well as the unresolved issue of Ukrainian superiority in drones.

Additionally, Russian forces continued their offensive in the Vuhledar sector, aiming to encircle the city. They captured Vodiane to the northeast of Vuhledar and advanced in the Prechystivka area. Russian troops also made further gains near Pishchane, threatening to split the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskil River.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

During the week, the Ukrainian Air Force Command reported on the interception of the following Russian nightly missile and drone attacks:

  • On the night of Sept. 7, 58 out of 67 Iranian-designed Shahed drones were shot down, with six leaving Ukrainian airspace and three disappearing from radar, likely crashing due to electronic warfare. Debris from one drone fell near the Verkhovna Rada [Ukraine's parliament] building in Kyiv, while another crashed in Latvia after passing through Belarusian airspace.
  • On the night of Sept. 8, 15 out of 23 Shahed drones and one out of four guided Kh-59 missiles were intercepted.
  • On the night of Sept. 9, six of eight Shahed drones and two out of three Kh-59 missiles were destroyed.
  • On the night of Sept. 10, 38 out of 46 Shahed drones were downed, three were “radar-lost,” and another three flew out of Ukrainian airspace; a ballistic Iskander-M missile and an anti-radiation Kh-31P missile were also reported to have been launched at Ukraine (there are no reports of them being shot down).
  • On the night of Sept. 11, 20 out of 25 Shahed drones were intercepted; the launch of one Iskander-M ballistic missile, two S-300 surface-to-air missiles, and six Kh-31P missiles were reported.
  • On the night of Sept. 12, 64 Shahed drones were launched, with 44 intercepted, while three returned to Russia and four were lost from radar. Iskander-M and Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles were also launched towards the Chernihiv Region, along with two Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles targeting Snake Island. One missile struck a ship carrying wheat to Egypt from the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk. 13 people were also injured in a night raid on the city of Konotop in the Sumy Region.
  • On the night of Sept. 13, 24 out of 26 Shahed drones were intercepted.

On Sept. 12, Ukraine's Ministry of Energy reported that energy facilities in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv regions had been attacked the previous day. That same day, Russian forces shelled an International Committee of the Red Cross humanitarian mission in the Donetsk Region, killing three staff members and wounding two others. Civilian casualties were also reported in the Donetsk (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), Kharkiv (1, 2, 3), Dnipropetrovsk (1, 2), and Sumy regions of Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, in turn, reported the following intercepted raids:

  • On the night of Sept. 7, four fixed-wing drones were shot down, and an ammunition depot was destroyed in the Voronezh Region.
  • On the night of Sept. 8, three drones were downed.
  • On the night of Sept. 9, two drones were intercepted.
  • On the night of Sept. 10, 144 drones were intercepted — including the largest drone raid on the Moscow Region to date. A drone crashed at Chkalovsky airfield and a woman was killed in the town of Ramenskoye when a UAV struck a residential building — the first civilian fatality in the Moscow Region surrounding the capital since Russia unleashed its full-scale war in Feb. 2022.
  • On the night of Sept. 11, four drones were shot down.
  • On the night of Sept. 12, five drones were intercepted.
  • On the night of Sept. 13, 20 drones were downed.

The above totals indicate that over the past week, the Ukrainian Air Force reported 250 Shahed drones and 24 missiles launched by Russian forces, while the Russian Ministry of Defense reported intercepting 182 fixed-wing drones during night raids.

During the week, Ukrainian forces were also reported to have struck the following targets:

Civilian casualties were reported in the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Kherson regions (1, 2) of Ukraine, as well as Russia’s Belgorod Region.

Losses

Pro-Russian channels linked to the Russian Aerospace Forces confirmed the loss of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet over the Black Sea — a report initially circulated by Ukrainian Telegram channels. Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) claimed the aircraft was shot down by Ukrainian special forces using a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) and released a video to confirm the downing of the aircraft. However, the Russian Airspace Force-linked Telegram channel Fighterbomber noted that the video does not capture the actual moment of the jet being shot down, adding that the exact cause of the loss of the aircraft is yet to be determined.

In response to ongoing reports of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the frontlines, Russian POWs in Ukraine have been banned from making phone calls to their families. Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets stressed that this move does not violate the Geneva Conventions, which only guarantee POWs’ right to written correspondence — a right that Russian prisoners reportedly still retain. However, according to a report by Ukrainian serviceman Stanislav Bunyatov, Russian soldiers who surrendered under the “I Want to Live!” (“Khochu Zhit”) program still have the right to both audio and video calls.

Weapons and military equipment

During his speech at a NATO defense ministers’ meeting at the Ramstein air base in Germany on Sep. 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Kyiv’s Western partners of slowing the deliveries of long-range missiles, particularly the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and ATACMS (existing stocks of the former may be depleted). Reports also revealed that Ukraine is facing issues with spare parts and barrel wear on German PzH 2000 howitzers. Other reports indicated that the Netherlands have not yet managed to assemble a complete Patriot missile battery for Ukraine, while Poland has not allocated funds for artillery ammunition purchases under the “Czech initiative.”

France and Sweden plan to double their production of ammunition and explosives (by 2025 and by 2026, respectively). Both countries intend to double the production of modular charges and increase gunpowder production tenfold, as per a fact sheet put out by the U.S. Department of Defense following the Ramstein meeting.

Both sides continued to adapt to changing conditions on the battlefield. Ukrainian munitions for drones filled with small coins and screws and the Russian “Tsar-Motolyga” MT-LB armored tracked vehicle, fitted with a massive anti-drone cage, were the highlights of this week’s “innovations” from the “frontline military-industrial complex” — although the practicality of the latter is questionable, given its weak base layer of armor and the impact of the added weight on cross-country capacity, the MT-LB's main advantage.

Previous weekly summaries:

Aug. 31 — Sept. 6, 2024: Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia attempts pincer movement at Vuhledar as Pokrovsk offensive stalls, Shahed drone shot down over Belarus

Aug. 24 — Aug. 30, 2024: Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia “heroically defends” a women's prison near Kursk, Ukraine's first F-16 goes down, Battle of Selydove

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