News
In today's summary:
- Restrictions on Western weapon strikes on Russian territory partially lifted due to the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region.
- No significant changes on the Kharkiv front this week, Russian Armed Forces in need of reserves.
- French President Emmanuel Macron plans to send “hundreds” of military instructors to Ukraine.
- Ferries at the Kerch ferry crossing damaged by combined air attack.
- The US concerned about Ukrainian attempts to target the Russian missile warning system radars.
- Based on open-source estimates, losses amount to 54,185 on the Russian side and 47,217 on the Ukrainian side.
- The military aid package from Sweden to the AFU to include “airborne radar” aircraft.
- a comprehensive overview of military-technical assistance to the Kremlin from friendly authoritarian regimes released by The Insider.
Situation on the front lines
A potential major development on the fronts of the Russia-Ukrainian war has been the partial lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory. In the case of the United States, this permission specifically allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to employ HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and artillery against border areas from which attacks are being launched into Ukrainian territory. Over the past week, several other Western allies, including Germany and Poland, have issued similar authorizations to Ukraine.
This decision is prompted by an offensive operation in the Kharkiv region, during which Russian artillery and UAV crews, operating from bases in the relatively safe Belgorod region, were able to act more freely against Ukrainian military equipment and personnel. Notably, as reported by CIT, operators of the Russian “Lancet” loitering munitions have achieved particular success. However, strikes with long-range missiles like ATACMS, which could hit Russian airfields, remain prohibited. This means the well-known issue of Russian glide bomb attacks will likely not be resolved in the near future.
In the northern part of the Kharkiv region, there have been no significant changes on the front lines over the past week, although the Russians seem to retain intentions to capture Vovchansk and advance further towards Kharkiv. They are isolating the logistics of the AFU in this direction by striking bridges (1, 2). Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets and the authors of the WarGonzo Telegram channel believe (1, 2) that additional reserves are needed for the Russian Armed Forces to advance. In the eastern region, Russian troops have had slightly more success - the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of the village of Berestove. However, according to DeepState, fighting is still ongoing there, although the Russians have managed to enter the village.
In the Avdiivka operational area, Russian troops captured Umanske and Netailove. Following this, according to Kostiantyn Mashovets, they began fortifying the flanks of their advancing group. Moving southward, Russian forces are slowly but steadily progressing in Krasnohorivka, aided in part by tanks equipped with “Tsar-mangals,” according to Ukrainian sources. War correspondent Sladkov published footage of the capture of the city council building in the center of Krasnohorivka.
Additionally, Russian troops have engaged in urban battles in the eastern part of Chasiv Yar, although the advance there is described as “slow and difficult.” Progress is also slow in the Vuhledar direction, particularly along the Staromaiorske-Urozhaine line, which was recaptured during the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Amid the sustained pressure from Russian troops, questions have arisen regarding the training of mobilized reinforcements for the AFU. French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to announce a plan within the next week to send Western instructors to Ukraine. According to Reuters, this plan involves “hundreds” of foreign specialists.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
Throughout the week, Ukrainian air defense systems reportedly repelled massive raids by Shahed drones and missiles (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). However, on the night of May 26, they failed to intercept two Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles. On the night of May 29, they missed one of 14 Shaheds, and on the night of May 30, they failed to interecept 4 of 11 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles. These night attacks resulted in a residential building being hit in the Vinnytsia region and damage to buildings, including a transformer substation, in Kyiv due to falling debris.
Additionally, nighttime missile strikes with S-300/S-400 surface-to-air missile systems targeted Kharkiv, resulting in the deaths of six people in one attack. Overall, the assaults on Ukraine's second most populous city have not ceased. The most tragic incident was a strike with new Russian UMPB D-30SN munitions on the Epicenter construction hypermarket, causing 19 fatalities.
Authorities in the Donetsk (1, 2, 3, 4), Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions of Ukraine also reported attacks on civilian infrastructure and casualties among the civilian population.
Reports of “accidental releases” of aerial bombs with UMPK kits over the Belgorod region (1, 2, 3, 4) have surfaced nearly every day. This week, UMPB D-30SN munitions were added to these incidents, reportedly launched towards Ukraine through the airspace over Belgorod.
Among notable Ukrainian attacks this week were strikes on an oil depot in the Oryol region, which resulted in the death of a firefighter and injuries to rescuers, and a Nebo-M RLS in occupied Luhansk. Other targets included (reportedly) an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, military personnel in occupied Donetsk, boats and a ferry crossing in occupied Crimea, and an oil depot in Krasnodar region's Port Kavkaz.
Additionally, there were attempts to strike Russian missile warning system radars (1, 2), which are part of the strategic nuclear forces' command system. This prompted the US to express concern to Kyiv about target selection.
Furthermore, the shelling persisted in the Belgorod region throughout the week (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). According to estimates, since the onset of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, the rocket warning siren has sounded twice as frequently in Belgorod. Along the border area, road signs warning of drone danger are being installed, tractors are being fitted with protective “mangals,” and emergency medical personnel are being provided with individual protective equipment.
Losses
The Russian BBC service and Mediazona, along with a team of volunteers, have updated their tally of Russian casualties in the conflict using open-source information. They have documented the names of 54,185 people who have lost their lives, with the list expanding by 1,396 people over the past two weeks. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that 238 civilians have perished in internationally recognized Russian territory, primarily in the Belgorod region, since the conflict's inception.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz estimated Russian losses in Ukraine at 24,000 killed or seriously wounded soldiers per month, emphasizing that these people are dying “for the Russian president's imperialist mania of grandeur.”
The extent of the losses is indirectly revealed through the overcrowded hospitals and medical facilities in the Belgorod region, as depicted in photographs (1, 2). Wounded people are being accommodated in corridors due to the shortage of beds and medical supplies. One medical facility attending to Russian soldiers injured on the Kharkiv front reportedly treated 40 people in just two hours (caution, the link contains footage of injuries and their treatment).
Clearly, the Russian command seeks to compensate for these losses through various measures. Throughout the week, there were reports of efforts to forcibly deploy wounded soldiers from Yakutsk and Yekaterinburg to the front lines. Additionally, it has been reported that a resident of Samara signed a contract just 10 days before tragically losing his life in the Kharkiv region. These practices were highlighted by The Insider in an article addressing the decline of the Russian military throughout the extensive conflict with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Russian pro-war website LostArmour has presented its own assessment of Ukrainian losses during the war based on open-source information. The authors have been able to confirm the deaths of 47,217 people. However, this data reportedly does not include at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers listed as missing, along with an additional 20-25% of losses deemed irrecoverable.
Analyst Naalsio updated the count of confirmed equipment losses in the Avdiivka operational area, where from May 17 to May 24, the Russian Armed Forces lost at least 35 units of equipment, while the AFU lost 10. According to Naaliso, in the Krynky area on the left bank of the Dnipro, confirmed losses for the same period were four units of equipment for the Russian Armed Forces and none for the AFU.
During the offensive in the Kharkiv region, Naalsio counted 8 units of lost equipment on the Russian side from May 20 to May 28 (a total of 19 units since the start of the operation) and 7 units on the Ukrainian side (a total of 29 units for the same period).
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated that in May, the AFU losses amounted to 35,000 soldiers, as well as 290 tanks and armored vehicles. He separately mentioned the destruction of four Abrams tanks and seven Leopards. It should be noted that exaggerating enemy losses was one of the criticisms of the ministry under Belousov's predecessor, Sergey Shoigu.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the first prisoner exchange with Ukraine in nearly four months, with a 75-for-75 swap. It is noted that the UAE acted as a mediator in the negotiations. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, National Guard and AFU soldiers, border guards, and four civilians returned to Ukraine.
Weapons and military equipment
The most significant weapons supply announced for the AFU this week was a military aid package from Sweden. This package includes two AWACS aircraft, AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and all available Pbv (Pansarbandvagn) 302 armored personnel carriers, intended for the establishment of new brigades. Experts and Russian pro-war writers concur that the long-range detection capabilities of these aircraft will enhance the AFU's ability to effectively counter Russian aircraft and missiles, particularly in intercepting anticipated threats from F-16 fighters. This advancement could potentially address the challenge posed by the Russian Aerospace Forces' use of glide bombs beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses.
Additionally, it was disclosed that Belgium plans to allocate nearly €1 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 and will supply 30 F-16 fighters by 2028, with the first delivery scheduled for this year. Germany's €500 million aid package will include missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems, spare parts for existing equipment, one million rounds of small arms ammunition, and maritime drones. Furthermore, it was revealed that Spain's €1 billion aid package will comprise missiles for Patriot air defense systems, 19 Leopard 2 tanks, as well as artillery ammunition and anti-drone equipment of Spanish origin.
From publicly available sources, it has become known that the AFU possess a variety of weaponry, including GBU-39 precision-guided bombs, NASAMS 3 launchers equipped with AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles, and Indian tank shells compatible with Soviet 125 mm caliber tank guns.
Meanwhile, the European defense industry is encountering challenges due to a scarcity of explosives and gunpowder required for the production of artillery ammunition. Additionally, it turned out that half of the rounds received under the Czech initiative needed modifications. Meanwhile, a new facility has been inaugurated in Texas, promising to manufacture 30,000 metal shell casings monthly, thus bringing the United States closer to its objective of producing 100,000 artillery rounds each month.
In a recent report, The Insider provided an extensive analysis of military-technical support provided to the Kremlin by sympathetic authoritarian regimes. China stands out as a primary partner in assisting Vladimir Putin's military endeavors in Ukraine, with military aid from North Korea, Iran, and Belarus frequently surpassing Western supplies to Ukraine in specific categories.
Furthermore, The Insider uncovered that Starlink terminals intended for deployment on the front lines are being openly sold in Russian online stores, despite previous assertions from platform owners suggesting they were unavailable for purchase. In some cases, sellers camouflage the terminals under alternative names to evade removal of the product pages.
Russian enterprises are exceeding production targets for combat drones and expanding missile manufacturing capabilities despite facing sanctions. However, troops on the front lines often make do with inadequately equipped tanks lacking explosive reactive armor, radio antennas fashioned from measuring tapes, and makeshift field artillery utilizing BMP-1 cannons mounted on mortar platforms. Additionally, the Russian Armed Forces encounter issues with uncontrolled turret rotation in modern T-90M tanks, while the AFU grapple with decreased effectiveness of many Western precision munitions due to the influence of Russian electronic warfare systems.